# $7 wheat is back as Plains drought slashes crop prospects

> Plains drought has pushed hard red winter wheat futures above $7 per bushel, near two-year highs. Analysts warn of higher abandonment and HRW production that could fall as much as 25% from 2025, with over 40% of Kansas wheat rated poor or very poor.

- Date: 2026-05-07 · published 2026-05-07T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region US · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/19314-7-wheat-is-back-as-plains-drought-slashes-crop-prospects
- Commodities: [Wheat (HRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/KWHEAT.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md)

## Why it matters

Lower US HRW output and rising abandonment tighten supplies for export buyers and support prices. Weather forecasts that repeatedly disappoint extend the supply risk.

## Read by commodity

- WHEAT: bullish ▲
- KWHEAT: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| KWHEAT | 2018-03-13 | [Drought threat intensifies for U.S. Plains winter wheat crop](https://feedsoft.ai/events/66052-drought-threat-intensifies-for-u-s-plains-winter-wheat-crop.md) | -7.6% | +2.5% |
| KWHEAT | 2021-07-29 | [Black Sea wheat price surges as dry weather slashes crop outlooks - Fastmarkets](https://feedsoft.ai/events/46099-black-sea-wheat-price-surges-as-dry-weather-slashes-crop-outlooks-fastmarkets.md) | +5.3% | +6.4% |
| KWHEAT | 2026-03-26 | [Wheat spread hits one-year high as drought fears grow in US plains](https://feedsoft.ai/events/20220-wheat-spread-hits-one-year-high-as-drought-fears-grow-in-us-plains.md) | -0.6% | +7.9% |
| KWHEAT | 2018-02-08 | [U.S. Crop Conditions Fall as Drought Conditions Worsen - U.S. Wheat Associates](https://feedsoft.ai/events/66541-u-s-crop-conditions-fall-as-drought-conditions-worsen-u-s-wheat-associates.md) | -2.3% | +8.1% |
| KWHEAT | 2021-08-26 | [Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (finally) acknowledges heat, drought have slashed its wheat and canola crops - Pro Farmer](https://feedsoft.ai/events/45542-agriculture-and-agri-food-canada-finally-acknowledges-heat-drought-have-slashed.md) | -1.0% | +2.6% |
| WHEAT | 2018-03-13 | [Drought threat intensifies for U.S. Plains winter wheat crop](https://feedsoft.ai/events/66052-drought-threat-intensifies-for-u-s-plains-winter-wheat-crop.md) | -1.6% | +0.5% |
| WHEAT | 2021-07-29 | [Black Sea wheat price surges as dry weather slashes crop outlooks - Fastmarkets](https://feedsoft.ai/events/46099-black-sea-wheat-price-surges-as-dry-weather-slashes-crop-outlooks-fastmarkets.md) | +2.2% | +2.5% |
| WHEAT | 2018-02-08 | [U.S. Crop Conditions Fall as Drought Conditions Worsen - U.S. Wheat Associates](https://feedsoft.ai/events/66541-u-s-crop-conditions-fall-as-drought-conditions-worsen-u-s-wheat-associates.md) | -0.5% | +1.3% |

## Sources

- farmprogress.com: https://www.farmprogress.com/wheat/wheat-prices-surge-as-drought-grips-southern-plains

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.