# Bad outlook for U.S. winter wheat crop gets worse

> USDA's May report put the 2026-27 US winter wheat crop at 1.048 billion bushels, down 25% and the smallest since 1965, about 160 million bushels below analyst expectations. Hard red winter wheat was pegged at 514.8 million bushels, down 36%, and July HRW futures reached $7.50 on May 13.

- Date: 2026-05-22 · published 2026-05-22T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: report · region US · magnitude high
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/19310-bad-outlook-for-u-s-winter-wheat-crop-gets-worse
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Wheat (HRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/KWHEAT.md)

## Why it matters

A sharply smaller US HRW crop reduces export supplies and supports wheat prices. Weaker US export flows could partly offset the bullish production story.

## Read by commodity

- WHEAT: bullish ▲
- KWHEAT: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2021-01-29 | [Winter 2021 Wheat Supply and Demand Outlook](https://feedsoft.ai/events/49176-winter-2021-wheat-supply-and-demand-outlook.md) | -9.7% | +0.1% |
| WHEAT | 2019-06-20 | [Few bright spots in winter crop outlook \| Meat & Livestock Australia](https://feedsoft.ai/events/58667-few-bright-spots-in-winter-crop-outlook-meat-and-livestock-australia.md) | +7.9% | -3.2% |
| WHEAT | 2017-07-03 | [World crop outlook breathes life into wheat prices - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/6179-world-crop-outlook-breathes-life-into-wheat-prices-grain-central.md) | -0.1% | +1.9% |
| WHEAT | 2018-06-20 | [Feed grain price update and winter crop outlook \| Meat & Livestock Australia](https://feedsoft.ai/events/64491-feed-grain-price-update-and-winter-crop-outlook-meat-and-livestock-australia.md) | -0.5% | -2.8% |
| WHEAT | 2026-05-29 | [Wheat growers bear brunt of fall in 2026-27 winter crop](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19232-wheat-growers-bear-brunt-of-fall-in-2026-27-winter-crop.md) | -2.6% | -0.5% |
| KWHEAT | 2021-01-29 | [Winter 2021 Wheat Supply and Demand Outlook](https://feedsoft.ai/events/49176-winter-2021-wheat-supply-and-demand-outlook.md) | -1.2% | -0.2% |
| KWHEAT | 2026-05-20 | [Global Wheat Outlook & WASDE Balance Sheet](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19239-global-wheat-outlook-and-wasde-balance-sheet.md) | -4.8% | -7.3% |
| KWHEAT | 2018-03-22 | [Global Winter Wheat Condition a Mixed Bag - U.S. Wheat Associates](https://feedsoft.ai/events/65938-global-winter-wheat-condition-a-mixed-bag-u-s-wheat-associates.md) | -1.0% | +6.4% |

## Sources

- farmprogress.com: https://www.farmprogress.com/marketing/usda-forecasts-smallest-us-winter-wheat-crop-since-1965-as-drought-devastates-key-growing-regions-in-the-plains

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.