# Wheat Futures Prices Have Surged 30% This Year As Iran War Hit Fertilizer Supplies and U.S. Drought Sent Output To A 54-Year Low

> Wheat futures have risen nearly 30% year to date, driven by a US drought that pushed output to a 54-year low and global fertilizer shortages linked to the Strait of Hormuz blockade. NOAA gave an 82% chance of El Niño developing from May to July.

- Date: 2026-05-31 · published 2026-05-31T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region US · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/19292-wheat-futures-prices-have-surged-30-this-year-as-iran-war-hit-fertilizer
- Commodities: [Urea](https://feedsoft.ai/c/UREA.md), [Wheat (HRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/KWHEAT.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md)

## Why it matters

Combined drought, fertilizer shortage and El Niño risk support wheat prices and raise feed cost expectations. Traders are drawn into the rally on supply shocks.

## Read by commodity

- UREA: bullish ▲
- WHEAT: bullish ▲
- KWHEAT: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| UREA | 2026-04-29 | [Indonesia 2026 crude palm oil output to fall due to El Nino, high fertiliser prices, association says \| The Star](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19818-indonesia-2026-crude-palm-oil-output-to-fall-due-to-el-nino-high-fertiliser.md) | -9.4% | -17.3% |
| UREA | 2023-07-24 | [Western Australia out of urea, suppliers assure they have enough to fill orders \| Farm Weekly \| WA](https://feedsoft.ai/events/35359-western-australia-out-of-urea-suppliers-assure-they-have-enough-to-fill-orders.md) | +31.8% | +18.1% |
| UREA | 2026-04-02 | [Raising energy and fertilizer prices and upcoming El Niño main concerns to farming  - Joint Research Centre](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19632-raising-energy-and-fertilizer-prices-and-upcoming-el-nino-main-concerns-to.md) | +1.6% | -1.2% |
| UREA | 2025-03-05 | [From Seed to Success: Plan for Your Largest Corn Harvest in 2025 with Drought-Proofing Strategies - AgWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13107-from-seed-to-success-plan-for-your-largest-corn-harvest-in-2025-with-drought.md) | -0.8% | -0.1% |
| UREA | 2026-01-21 | [Natural Gas Prices Soar as Winter Storm Is Set to Drop Snow, Ice Across Massive Swath of the US - Bloomberg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/4409-natural-gas-prices-soar-as-winter-storm-is-set-to-drop-snow-ice-across-massive.md) | +1.6% | +13.7% |
| KWHEAT | 2026-04-28 | [Wheat Futures Surge to Highest Since 2024 on US Drought, Fertilizer Costs - Bloomberg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19765-wheat-futures-surge-to-highest-since-2024-on-us-drought-fertilizer-costs.md) | +2.3% | +1.3% |
| KWHEAT | 2026-04-30 | [Wheat Prices Jump as Drought Threatens U.S. Output - WSJ](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19766-wheat-prices-jump-as-drought-threatens-u-s-output-wsj.md) | -2.1% | -3.6% |
| KWHEAT | 2026-03-31 | [Wheat Prices Surge on US Drought and Planting Uncertainty](https://feedsoft.ai/events/20207-wheat-prices-surge-on-us-drought-and-planting-uncertainty.md) | -3.0% | +11.3% |

## Sources

- finance.yahoo.com: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/commodities/articles/wheat-futures-prices-surged-30-230022142.html

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.