# Global wheat markets on edge as war, weather, fertilizer shocks drive new rally | S&P Global

> S&P Global reports that global wheat prices have risen since the Middle East war began in late February, with Platts benchmarks gaining over 3%. Drivers cited include geopolitical tensions, higher fertilizer costs, North American weather risks and a possible El Niño affecting Australia.

- Date: 2026-05-19 · published 2026-05-19T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: geopolitics · region Global · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/19291-global-wheat-markets-on-edge-as-war-weather-fertilizer-shocks-drive-new-rally-s
- Commodities: [Urea](https://feedsoft.ai/c/UREA.md), [Wheat (HRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/KWHEAT.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md)

## Why it matters

Higher input costs and weather risk are lifting global wheat values, while Black Sea new-crop supply competes with Australian origin in Asia. Feed buyers face firmer wheat prices with trade flows shifting.

## Read by commodity

- UREA: bullish ▲
- WHEAT: bullish ▲
- KWHEAT: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| UREA | 2026-04-13 | [War Stresses Global Fertilizer Markets \| Rabobank](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19637-war-stresses-global-fertilizer-markets-rabobank.md) | +1.2% | -13.1% |
| UREA | 2026-04-01 | [The Iran war’s impacts on global fertilizer markets and food production](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19643-the-iran-war-s-impacts-on-global-fertilizer-markets-and-food-production.md) | +10.6% | +7.6% |
| UREA | 2025-09-23 | [What Would Global Sanctions Against Russia Do to Fertilizer Markets?](https://feedsoft.ai/events/22778-what-would-global-sanctions-against-russia-do-to-fertilizer-markets.md) | -1.1% | -5.4% |
| UREA | 2026-06-02 | [Global Fertilizer Markets Today - IFDC](https://feedsoft.ai/events/7282-global-fertilizer-markets-today-ifdc.md) | -8.2% | -16.1% |
| UREA | 2025-01-21 | [A global look at the fertilizer market - Brownfield Ag News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/26814-a-global-look-at-the-fertilizer-market-brownfield-ag-news.md) | +1.2% | +14.1% |
| KWHEAT | 2026-07-22 | [Grain Markets Explode to Fresh Highs on War, Weather with Wheat Leading - AgWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/9559-grain-markets-explode-to-fresh-highs-on-war-weather-with-wheat-leading-agweb.md) | -0.9% | +1.5% |
| KWHEAT | 2026-07-31 | [Wheat Futures Rally on Black Sea Escalation as Market Tests Key Resistance](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18379-wheat-futures-rally-on-black-sea-escalation-as-market-tests-key-resistance.md) | -4.2% | +10.0% |
| KWHEAT | 2024-11-20 | [Has the Global Wheat Market Changed?](https://feedsoft.ai/events/27442-has-the-global-wheat-market-changed.md) | -1.4% | -1.7% |

## Sources

- spglobal.com: https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/podcasts/commodities-focus/051926-global-wheat-markets-on-edge-as-war-weather-fertilizer-shocks-drive-new-rally

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.