# India Cuts Monsoon Outlook to 90% of Normal in Risk to Crops | Financial Post

> India's meteorological department lowered its June-September monsoon forecast to 90% of the long-term average, with a 4% margin of error, from 92% in April. The forecast reflects a likely El Niño pattern that is expected to reduce rainfall during the season.

- Date: 2026-05-29 · published 2026-05-29T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region India · magnitude high
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/19228-india-cuts-monsoon-outlook-to-90-of-normal-in-risk-to-crops-financial-post
- Commodities: [Rough Rice](https://feedsoft.ai/c/RICE.md), [Sunflower Meal](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SUNMEAL.md), [Cottonseed Meal](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CSM.md)

## Why it matters

A weak monsoon threatens Indian rice, sugar and cotton output and raises the chance of Indian export curbs on farm commodities. That supports prices for rice and sugar and adds upside risk to global grain markets.

## Read by commodity

- CSM: neutral
- RICE: bullish ▲
- SUNMEAL: neutral

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| RICE | 2018-08-01 | [India's monsoon rain forecast cut, farm output seen at risk \| The Star](https://feedsoft.ai/events/63497-india-s-monsoon-rain-forecast-cut-farm-output-seen-at-risk-the-star.md) | -8.4% | -11.1% |
| RICE | 2024-08-29 | [Prolonged Monsoon Rains Threaten India’s Crop Outlook \| Headlines](https://feedsoft.ai/events/28729-prolonged-monsoon-rains-threaten-india-s-crop-outlook-headlines.md) | +2.3% | -1.4% |
| RICE | 2026-06-02 | [India cuts foodgrains output target amid below normal monsoon forecast - The HinduBusinessLine](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18741-india-cuts-foodgrains-output-target-amid-below-normal-monsoon-forecast-the.md) | -0.2% | +2.6% |
| RICE | 2019-07-29 | [Food to get costlier: Inflation may rise as poor monsoon rains hit rice, food grain output - Economy News \| The Financial Express](https://feedsoft.ai/events/58050-food-to-get-costlier-inflation-may-rise-as-poor-monsoon-rains-hit-rice-food.md) | -4.0% | -10.0% |
| RICE | 2018-07-17 | [Cloudy outlook: Rice-growing states face big rain deficit - India News \| The Financial Express](https://feedsoft.ai/events/63992-cloudy-outlook-rice-growing-states-face-big-rain-deficit-india-news-the.md) | -0.5% | -14.4% |

## Sources

- financialpost.com: https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/india-cuts-monsoon-forecast-to-90-of-normal-in-risk-to-crops

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.