# Lowest Hard Red Winter Wheat Production Since 1957 Highlighted in Latest WASDE Report - Oklahoma Farm Report

> The May WASDE put U.S. hard red winter wheat production at 515 million bushels, the lowest since 1957. Total U.S. all-wheat production was estimated at 1.561 billion bushels, down more than 300 million from the prior year, driven by Plains drought.

- Date: 2026-05-12 · published 2026-05-12T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: report · region US · magnitude high
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/19194-lowest-hard-red-winter-wheat-production-since-1957-highlighted-in-latest-wasde
- Commodities: [Wheat (HRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/KWHEAT.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md)

## Why it matters

A historically small HRW crop tightens supplies of the variety used in many feed and milling blends and supports wheat prices, especially for hard red classes.

## Read by commodity

- WHEAT: bullish ▲
- KWHEAT: bullish ▲

## Linked price moves

| Commodity | Date | Window | Change % | z-score | Why linked |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| KWHEAT | 2026-05-11 | 1 | +7.0% | 3.5 | HRW production at 515 mil bu, the lowest since 1957, is the key supply shock for the HRW contract. |
| WHEAT | 2026-05-11 | 1 | +3.2% | 3.6 | HRW output at its lowest since 1957 highlights the supply loss that drove prices. |

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| KWHEAT | 2022-09-30 | [Hard Red Winter Wheat production lowest since 1957 - Oklahoma Farm Report](https://feedsoft.ai/events/39644-hard-red-winter-wheat-production-lowest-since-1957-oklahoma-farm-report.md) | -0.2% | -3.6% |
| KWHEAT | 2025-01-10 | [Annual Crop Production Summary & Winter Wheat Seeding Reports Published by USDA - Oklahoma Farm Report](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13124-annual-crop-production-summary-and-winter-wheat-seeding-reports-published-by.md) | -0.4% | +9.8% |
| KWHEAT | 2026-05-19 | [USDA May Reports Jolt Winter Wheat Markets Amid Production Deficits and Volatility - Oklahoma Farm Report](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19312-usda-may-reports-jolt-winter-wheat-markets-amid-production-deficits-and.md) | -3.9% | -9.9% |
| KWHEAT | 2026-03-31 | [CRMAgri - Latest - USDA Highlights: Wheat prices gain after US sowings forecast at lowest on record](https://feedsoft.ai/events/20204-crmagri-latest-usda-highlights-wheat-prices-gain-after-us-sowings-forecast-at.md) | -3.0% | +11.3% |
| KWHEAT | 2023-05-12 | [Lower-Than-Expected Winter Wheat Production Sends KC Wheat Futures Soaring](https://feedsoft.ai/events/35885-lower-than-expected-winter-wheat-production-sends-kc-wheat-futures-soaring.md) | -3.9% | -10.5% |
| WHEAT | 2022-09-30 | [Hard Red Winter Wheat production lowest since 1957 - Oklahoma Farm Report](https://feedsoft.ai/events/39644-hard-red-winter-wheat-production-lowest-since-1957-oklahoma-farm-report.md) | +0.4% | -10.7% |
| WHEAT | 2026-07-14 | [Historic Wheat Production Decline, Tighter Corn Supplies Highlight USDA's July WASDE Report - ProAg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18276-historic-wheat-production-decline-tighter-corn-supplies-highlight-usda-s-july.md) | +4.5% | +1.1% |
| WHEAT | 2024-06-28 | [WMR-U.S. Hard Red Winter Production Recovers in 2024](https://feedsoft.ai/events/29812-wmr-u-s-hard-red-winter-production-recovers-in-2024.md) | -2.2% | +3.1% |

## Sources

- oklahomafarmreport.com: https://www.oklahomafarmreport.com/2026/05/12/lowest-hard-red-winter-wheat-production-since-1957-highlighted-in-latest-wasde-report/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.