# Most models predict El Nino may last until January 2027: IMD - The HinduBusinessLine

> The India Meteorological Department says most global models forecast El Niño during the monsoon season, possibly lasting until early 2027. IMD has forecast a below-normal 2026 monsoon at 92% of the long-period average. The agency warns of lower rainfall during both the kharif and rabi seasons.

- Date: 2026-05-01 · published 2026-05-01T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region India · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/19189-most-models-predict-el-nino-may-last-until-january-2027-imd-the
- Commodities: [Rough Rice](https://feedsoft.ai/c/RICE.md)

## Why it matters

A weak monsoon threatens Indian kharif rice and other crop output, which could cut domestic supply and lift global rice prices as India's export availability tightens.

## Read by commodity

- RICE: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| RICE | 2023-02-27 | [What if El Nino materialises in 2023? - The HinduBusinessLine](https://feedsoft.ai/events/37250-what-if-el-nino-materialises-in-2023-the-hindubusinessline.md) | +1.2% | +6.4% |
| RICE | 2023-03-10 | [Shadow of El Nino over growth - The HinduBusinessLine](https://feedsoft.ai/events/36764-shadow-of-el-nino-over-growth-the-hindubusinessline.md) | +8.0% | +3.9% |
| RICE | 2023-05-05 | [‘Developing’ El Nino may hit India’s maize, soya and rice output, says FAO   - The HinduBusinessLine](https://feedsoft.ai/events/35870-developing-el-nino-may-hit-india-s-maize-soya-and-rice-output-says-fao-the.md) | +1.8% | -0.5% |
| RICE | 2023-03-14 | [Two global weather bodies declare El Nino ‘watch’ - The HinduBusinessLine](https://feedsoft.ai/events/36759-two-global-weather-bodies-declare-el-nino-watch-the-hindubusinessline.md) | +5.8% | +3.7% |
| RICE | 2026-10-27 | [From maize to coffee, El Nino likely to affect various crops across the world - The HinduBusinessLine](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17051-from-maize-to-coffee-el-nino-likely-to-affect-various-crops-across-the-world.md) | +3.5% | — |

## Sources

- thehindubusinessline.com: https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/agri-business/most-models-predict-el-nino-may-last-until-january-2027-says-india-meteorological-department/article70929117.ece

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.