# US forecaster says El Nino has 82% chance of developing by July | Reuters

> The US Climate Prediction Center put the chance of El Niño developing during May-July 2026 at 82%, rising to 96% for December-February. Forecasters flagged substantial uncertainty about peak strength, with no strength category above a 37% chance. El Niño brings a higher risk of floods and drought in many crop regions.

- Date: 2026-05-14 · published 2026-05-14T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Global · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/19187-us-forecaster-says-el-nino-has-82-chance-of-developing-by-july-reuters
- Commodities: [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Rough Rice](https://feedsoft.ai/c/RICE.md)

## Why it matters

A higher likelihood of El Niño raises the risk of drought in Australia, Southeast Asia and India and of changing rainfall in the Americas, which supports prices for grains, oilseeds and rice.

## Read by commodity

- SOY: bullish ▲
- CORN: bullish ▲
- RICE: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SOY | 2024-05-09 | [El Nino to end by June, La Nina seen in second half of 2024, says U.S. forecaster \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/30149-el-nino-to-end-by-june-la-nina-seen-in-second-half-of-2024-says-u-s-forecaster.md) | +0.1% | -1.1% |
| SOY | 2024-09-12 | [La Nina weather 71% likely to develop in Sept-Nov, says US forecaster \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/28233-la-nina-weather-71-likely-to-develop-in-sept-nov-says-us-forecaster-reuters.md) | +3.5% | +4.1% |
| SOY | 2024-10-10 | [US forecaster sees 60% chance of La Niña weather in September-November](https://feedsoft.ai/events/27778-us-forecaster-sees-60-chance-of-la-nina-weather-in-september-november.md) | -3.9% | -2.5% |
| SOY | 2024-02-08 | [El Nino waning, La Nina to develop in second half of 2024](https://feedsoft.ai/events/31586-el-nino-waning-la-nina-to-develop-in-second-half-of-2024.md) | -1.6% | -2.7% |
| SOY | 2023-05-24 | [The U.S. Now Has a Nearly 90% Chance of Seeing El Niño This Summer - AgWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13279-the-u-s-now-has-a-nearly-90-chance-of-seeing-el-nino-this-summer-agweb.md) | -1.7% | +13.5% |
| CORN | 2024-05-09 | [El Nino to end by June, La Nina seen in second half of 2024, says U.S. forecaster \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/30149-el-nino-to-end-by-june-la-nina-seen-in-second-half-of-2024-says-u-s-forecaster.md) | +2.7% | +0.5% |
| CORN | 2024-09-12 | [La Nina weather 71% likely to develop in Sept-Nov, says US forecaster \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/28233-la-nina-weather-71-likely-to-develop-in-sept-nov-says-us-forecaster-reuters.md) | +4.9% | +5.1% |
| CORN | 2024-10-10 | [US forecaster sees 60% chance of La Niña weather in September-November](https://feedsoft.ai/events/27778-us-forecaster-sees-60-chance-of-la-nina-weather-in-september-november.md) | -2.6% | +0.4% |

## Sources

- reuters.com: https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/us-forecaster-says-el-nino-has-82-chance-developing-by-july-2026-2026-05-14/

---
Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.