# Widespread ASAP forecast warnings on crops for second half of the year due to upcoming El Niño conditions - Joint Research Centre

> The EU Joint Research Centre's April ASAP assessment flags widespread anomaly warnings for crops in the second half of 2026 as El Niño conditions develop. It notes above-average Southern African cereal output, dryness in Angola, flooding in Mozambique, and drought and famine risk in East Africa. The assessment links these risks to potential El Niño impacts later in the year.

- Date: 2026-05-06 · published 2026-05-06T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Global · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/19186-widespread-asap-forecast-warnings-on-crops-for-second-half-of-the-year-due-to
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md)

## Why it matters

Expected El Niño-linked dryness and heat in key exporting and producing regions could tighten grain and oilseed balances in the second half of the year, supporting prices for corn and wheat.

## Read by commodity

- CORN: bullish ▲
- WHEAT: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2026-04-02 | [Raising energy and fertilizer prices and upcoming El Niño main concerns to farming  - Joint Research Centre](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19632-raising-energy-and-fertilizer-prices-and-upcoming-el-nino-main-concerns-to.md) | -1.7% | +1.6% |
| WHEAT | 2022-03-21 | [Fair start to spring for most European crops - Joint Research Centre](https://feedsoft.ai/events/42208-fair-start-to-spring-for-most-european-crops-joint-research-centre.md) | +15.8% | +5.9% |
| WHEAT | 2026-09-04 | [El Niño drives crop failure in Central America and East Africa and threatens the next season in Southern Africa, East Africa, Western South America, and Southeast Asia - Joint Research Centre](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17395-el-nino-drives-crop-failure-in-central-america-and-east-africa-and-threatens.md) | +1.4% | +0.4% |
| WHEAT | 2022-11-21 | [Exceptionally warm autumn raises concerns in the south of Europe - Joint Research Centre](https://feedsoft.ai/events/38616-exceptionally-warm-autumn-raises-concerns-in-the-south-of-europe-joint-research.md) | +0.2% | -2.4% |
| WHEAT | 2026-07-27 | [Heatwaves impact summer and winter crops - Joint Research Centre](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18282-heatwaves-impact-summer-and-winter-crops-joint-research-centre.md) | -2.0% | +3.3% |
| CORN | 2026-04-02 | [Raising energy and fertilizer prices and upcoming El Niño main concerns to farming  - Joint Research Centre](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19632-raising-energy-and-fertilizer-prices-and-upcoming-el-nino-main-concerns-to.md) | -1.6% | +1.9% |
| CORN | 2026-09-04 | [El Niño drives crop failure in Central America and East Africa and threatens the next season in Southern Africa, East Africa, Western South America, and Southeast Asia - Joint Research Centre](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17395-el-nino-drives-crop-failure-in-central-america-and-east-africa-and-threatens.md) | +0.5% | +1.9% |
| CORN | 2026-10-07 | [El Niño weather extremes worsen food security in East Africa and Central America and threaten next season crops in Southern Africa and South America - Joint Research Centre](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17047-el-nino-weather-extremes-worsen-food-security-in-east-africa-and-central.md) | -2.4% | -6.1% |

## Sources

- joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu: https://joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu/jrc-news-and-updates/widespread-asap-forecast-warnings-crops-second-half-year-due-upcoming-el-nino-conditions-2026-05-06_en

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.