# How fertilizer policies could exacerbate Hormuz price shocks | IFPRI

> An IFPRI modeling analysis finds that fertilizer export restrictions by producers outside the Persian Gulf could significantly worsen global price swings after the Strait of Hormuz closure. The authors note that export bans insulate domestic markets but remove volume from world supply, while subsidies sustain consumption but add to price pressure.

- Date: 2026-05-22 · published 2026-05-22T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: policy · region Global · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/19174-how-fertilizer-policies-could-exacerbate-hormuz-price-shocks-ifpri
- Commodities: [Urea](https://feedsoft.ai/c/UREA.md), [DAP](https://feedsoft.ai/c/DAP.md)

## Why it matters

Export restrictions and subsidy policies by major fertilizer exporters can magnify supply shocks, keeping urea and DAP prices high and raising feed production costs.

## Read by commodity

- DAP: bullish ▲
- UREA: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| UREA | 2026-08-25 | [How fertilizer policies could exacerbate Hormuz price shocks - OPEC Fund for International Development](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17860-how-fertilizer-policies-could-exacerbate-hormuz-price-shocks-opec-fund-for.md) | +11.1% | +16.2% |
| UREA | 2021-10-20 | [China’s curbs on fertilizer exports to worsen global price shock](https://feedsoft.ai/events/44476-china-s-curbs-on-fertilizer-exports-to-worsen-global-price-shock.md) | -2.0% | +9.0% |
| UREA | 2022-03-18 | [If You Think Fertilizer Prices are Bad Now, Here's Why China Could Make the Situation Even Worse - AgWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/42597-if-you-think-fertilizer-prices-are-bad-now-here-s-why-china-could-make-the.md) | -0.6% | -1.6% |
| UREA | 2025-12-17 | [Why Fertilizer Prices Now Move on Politics Not Demand](https://feedsoft.ai/events/21420-why-fertilizer-prices-now-move-on-politics-not-demand.md) | +2.1% | +12.9% |
| UREA | 2021-12-13 | [The Complex Truth About Fertilizer Prices - The Fertilizer Institute](https://feedsoft.ai/events/43506-the-complex-truth-about-fertilizer-prices-the-fertilizer-institute.md) | 0.0% | -12.1% |
| DAP | 2026-08-25 | [How fertilizer policies could exacerbate Hormuz price shocks - OPEC Fund for International Development](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17860-how-fertilizer-policies-could-exacerbate-hormuz-price-shocks-opec-fund-for.md) | -0.6% | +0.9% |
| DAP | 2021-10-20 | [China’s curbs on fertilizer exports to worsen global price shock](https://feedsoft.ai/events/44476-china-s-curbs-on-fertilizer-exports-to-worsen-global-price-shock.md) | +0.0% | +4.3% |
| DAP | 2022-03-18 | [If You Think Fertilizer Prices are Bad Now, Here's Why China Could Make the Situation Even Worse - AgWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/42597-if-you-think-fertilizer-prices-are-bad-now-here-s-why-china-could-make-the.md) | +1.6% | -0.5% |

## Sources

- ifpri.org: https://www.ifpri.org/blog/how-fertilizer-policies-could-exacerbate-hormuz-price-shocks/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.