# Natural gas: Lower TTF path but winter risks – Rabobank

> Rabobank cut its TTF gas forecasts to €47/MWh for Q3 and €50/MWh for Q4 as Hormuz supply risks eased. It warns that tight winter balances and Asian LNG demand keep significant upside risk.

- Date: 2026-06-23 · published 2026-06-23T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: macro · region Europe · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/18990-natural-gas-lower-ttf-path-but-winter-risks-rabobank
- Commodities: [Natural Gas](https://feedsoft.ai/c/NATGAS.md), [Urea](https://feedsoft.ai/c/UREA.md)

## Why it matters

Lower forecast European gas prices ease nitrogen fertilizer costs, but the winter risk premium keeps input costs above normal. Feed buyers should expect firm energy-linked costs.

## Read by commodity

- UREA: bearish ▼
- NATGAS: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| NATGAS | 2020-03-26 | [How coronavirus will alter natural gas markets](https://feedsoft.ai/events/54311-how-coronavirus-will-alter-natural-gas-markets.md) | -5.2% | +6.3% |
| NATGAS | 2026-10-23 | [U.S. Natural Gas Futures Fall on Mild Near-Term Weather - WSJ](https://feedsoft.ai/events/626-u-s-natural-gas-futures-fall-on-mild-near-term-weather-wsj.md) | +2.3% | — |
| NATGAS | 2020-05-14 | [How Will Natural Gas Navigate The Post-Coronavirus World?](https://feedsoft.ai/events/10441-how-will-natural-gas-navigate-the-post-coronavirus-world.md) | +13.4% | +12.8% |
| NATGAS | 2019-05-07 | [Natural gas and coal: Plunging prices](https://feedsoft.ai/events/59268-natural-gas-and-coal-plunging-prices.md) | +5.3% | -3.9% |
| NATGAS | 2020-05-11 | [Natural Gas Exports Slow as Pandemic Reduces Global Demand - The New York Times](https://feedsoft.ai/events/10443-natural-gas-exports-slow-as-pandemic-reduces-global-demand-the-new-york-times.md) | -7.2% | -2.7% |
| UREA | 2026-10-23 | [U.S. Natural Gas Futures Fall on Mild Near-Term Weather - WSJ](https://feedsoft.ai/events/626-u-s-natural-gas-futures-fall-on-mild-near-term-weather-wsj.md) | -0.1% | — |
| UREA | 2023-03-20 | [Global Natural Gas Prices Keep Falling as Demand Weakens, Banking Crisis Weighs on Markets – LNG Recap](https://feedsoft.ai/events/37032-global-natural-gas-prices-keep-falling-as-demand-weakens-banking-crisis-weighs.md) | +0.3% | +13.2% |
| UREA | 2023-03-24 | [US natgas prices slump after mild winter leaves big surplus \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/37027-us-natgas-prices-slump-after-mild-winter-leaves-big-surplus-reuters.md) | -0.8% | +13.0% |

## Sources

- fxstreet.com: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/natural-gas-lower-ttf-path-but-winter-risks-rabobank-202606231451

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.