# Record milk production keeps pressure on dairy prices

> USDA's monthly milk production report showed May output at a record 20.6 billion pounds, up 2% year over year, and year-to-date output up 3%. Class III futures have hit fresh contract lows for July delivery after trading near $19 earlier in the year.

- Date: 2026-06-29 · published 2026-06-29T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: report · region US · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/18977-record-milk-production-keeps-pressure-on-dairy-prices
- Commodities: [Milk (Class III)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/MILK.md)

## Why it matters

Record output keeps cheese and dairy product prices under pressure, a bearish signal for milk prices. A shrinking replacement-heifer pipeline could eventually cap production growth.

## Read by commodity

- MILK: bearish ▼

## Linked price moves

| Commodity | Date | Window | Change % | z-score | Why linked |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| MILK | 2026-06-30 | 1 | -3.2% | -4.1 | Record May milk output (+2% y/y) reported just before the move pressured Class III futures to fresh contract lows, a supply-driven sell-off. |

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| MILK | 2021-04-16 | [Dairy prices under pressure due to increased U.S. milk production](https://feedsoft.ai/events/47608-dairy-prices-under-pressure-due-to-increased-u-s-milk-production.md) | +0.5% | +8.4% |
| MILK | 2020-04-24 | [Dairy prices fall as milk production rises](https://feedsoft.ai/events/6500-dairy-prices-fall-as-milk-production-rises.md) | -13.8% | -7.5% |
| MILK | 2016-11-02 | [Increased milk production pressures prices lower](https://feedsoft.ai/events/73986-increased-milk-production-pressures-prices-lower.md) | +13.4% | +14.8% |
| MILK | 2026-07-11 | [Cheese production higher, milk prices lower - Dairy Star](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18337-cheese-production-higher-milk-prices-lower-dairy-star.md) | +0.4% | +7.1% |
| MILK | 2026-07-20 | [USDA Dairy Outlook: Milk Production Grows While Prices Ease](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18530-usda-dairy-outlook-milk-production-grows-while-prices-ease.md) | +0.3% | +5.1% |

## Sources

- traderphd.com: https://traderphd.com/blog/record-milk-production-keeps-pressure-on-dairy-prices

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.