# El Niño impact on Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil production | Report

> A Marex report notes Malaysia and Indonesia supply 88% of world palm oil, with USDA estimating 67.1 million tonnes of output against 79.6 million tonnes of consumption for 2026/27. Stocks-to-use is thin at under 12%, making both countries exposed to El Niño-related production shortfalls.

- Date: 2026-07-01 · published 2026-07-01T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Global · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/18907-el-nino-impact-on-malaysian-and-indonesian-palm-oil-production-report
- Commodities: [Palm Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/PALMOIL.md)

## Why it matters

Thin global stocks mean even small El Niño-driven output losses in Indonesia or Malaysia could sharply lift palm oil prices.

## Read by commodity

- PALMOIL: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| PALMOIL | 2026-08-28 | [El Niño to crimp Indonesian palm oil output, producer group says](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18012-el-nino-to-crimp-indonesian-palm-oil-output-producer-group-says.md) | +4.5% | +1.3% |
| PALMOIL | 2026-09-02 | [El Niño to crimp Indonesian palm oil output, producer group says - MPOC](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17547-el-nino-to-crimp-indonesian-palm-oil-output-producer-group-says-mpoc.md) | -0.5% | -4.3% |
| PALMOIL | 2024-12-03 | [Palm oil rises on Malaysia floods, higher Indonesian export tax - Markets - Business Recorder](https://feedsoft.ai/events/27044-palm-oil-rises-on-malaysia-floods-higher-indonesian-export-tax-markets-business.md) | +3.9% | -2.2% |
| PALMOIL | 2016-12-15 | [Drought cuts Malaysian palm oil production 6% in November  : The Daily Digest](https://feedsoft.ai/events/73574-drought-cuts-malaysian-palm-oil-production-6-in-november-the-daily-digest.md) | -0.4% | -0.7% |
| PALMOIL | 2026-09-04 | [Will a ‘Super’ El Niño Impact the Weather and Food Production in 2026? - Bloomberg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17398-will-a-super-el-nino-impact-the-weather-and-food-production-in-2026-bloomberg.md) | -1.4% | -8.8% |

## Sources

- marex.com: https://www.marex.com/news/2026/06/el-nino-impact-on-malaysian-and-indonesian-palm-oil-production

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.