# Plains Drought Cuts Winter Wheat Production Forecast | Agriculture of America

> USDA cut its 2026-27 U.S. winter wheat production forecast by about 2% from the previous month because of persistent Great Plains drought. Hard red winter wheat output is expected to fall to its lowest level in decades, and only about a quarter of the crop is rated good to excellent. Hard red wheat futures rose on the outlook.

- Date: 2026-06-22 · published 2026-06-22T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region US · magnitude high
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/18860-plains-drought-cuts-winter-wheat-production-forecast-agriculture-of-america
- Commodities: [Wheat (HRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/KWHEAT.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md)

## Why it matters

Tighter HRW supply is a major bullish driver for wheat and HRW prices, and it could push up costs for wheat-based feed ingredients. Harvest weather will determine whether losses deepen.

## Read by commodity

- WHEAT: bullish ▲
- KWHEAT: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| KWHEAT | 2018-03-13 | [Drought threat intensifies for U.S. Plains winter wheat crop](https://feedsoft.ai/events/66052-drought-threat-intensifies-for-u-s-plains-winter-wheat-crop.md) | -7.6% | +2.5% |
| KWHEAT | 2021-08-26 | [Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (finally) acknowledges heat, drought have slashed its wheat and canola crops - Pro Farmer](https://feedsoft.ai/events/45542-agriculture-and-agri-food-canada-finally-acknowledges-heat-drought-have-slashed.md) | -1.0% | +2.6% |
| KWHEAT | 2026-05-07 | [$7 wheat is back as Plains drought slashes crop prospects](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19314-7-wheat-is-back-as-plains-drought-slashes-crop-prospects.md) | +5.7% | -8.2% |
| KWHEAT | 2026-06-22 | [After drought and wildfires, wheat farmers in the Great Plains are in for a rough year \| HPPR](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18863-after-drought-and-wildfires-wheat-farmers-in-the-great-plains-are-in-for-a.md) | -5.1% | +12.4% |
| KWHEAT | 2022-03-09 | [US Winter Wheat Production Won’t Ease Tight Global Supplies](https://feedsoft.ai/events/42322-us-winter-wheat-production-won-t-ease-tight-global-supplies.md) | -2.4% | -8.7% |
| WHEAT | 2018-03-13 | [Drought threat intensifies for U.S. Plains winter wheat crop](https://feedsoft.ai/events/66052-drought-threat-intensifies-for-u-s-plains-winter-wheat-crop.md) | -1.6% | +0.5% |
| WHEAT | 2017-08-08 | [Wheat production forecast down: NAB - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/69415-wheat-production-forecast-down-nab-grain-central.md) | +0.5% | -0.8% |
| WHEAT | 2020-09-24 | [Wheat prices rose because of lower production forecast for Argentina](https://feedsoft.ai/events/10435-wheat-prices-rose-because-of-lower-production-forecast-for-argentina.md) | +6.7% | +11.0% |

## Sources

- agricultureofamerica.com: https://www.agricultureofamerica.com/2026/06/22/plains-drought-cuts-winter-wheat-production-forecast/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.