# Global dairy markets heading towards ‘balance’ as milk production growth slows

> Rabobank's Q2 Global Dairy Quarterly says global milk production growth slowed in the second quarter of 2026, after four quarters of expansion above 2%. It expects output to be 1.5% higher year on year in Q2, flatten in Q3 and fall 1.6% in Q4. Higher input costs and margin pressure on farms are cited as key factors.

- Date: 2026-06-15 · published 2026-06-15T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: report · region Global · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/18813-global-dairy-markets-heading-towards-balance-as-milk-production-growth-slows
- Commodities: [Milk (Class III)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/MILK.md)

## Why it matters

A move toward production decline later in 2026 could tighten global dairy supply and support prices. Rabobank also flags El Niño risks to South American, Australian and New Zealand milk output.

## Read by commodity

- MILK: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| MILK | 2019-09-19 | [U.S. milk production growth remains small in August - Progressive Dairy \| Ag Proud](https://feedsoft.ai/events/57060-u-s-milk-production-growth-remains-small-in-august-progressive-dairy-ag-proud.md) | +0.1% | +2.0% |
| MILK | 2024-03-25 | [Terrain \| Margins Improve, but Not Enough to Spur Milk Production Growth](https://feedsoft.ai/events/31204-terrain-margins-improve-but-not-enough-to-spur-milk-production-growth.md) | -0.4% | -5.1% |
| MILK | 2019-03-26 | [Milk production continues to slow](https://feedsoft.ai/events/60104-milk-production-continues-to-slow.md) | +0.1% | +5.8% |
| MILK | 2021-09-14 | [Declining Milk Production Leads to Higher Prices](https://feedsoft.ai/events/45215-declining-milk-production-leads-to-higher-prices.md) | +0.1% | +8.1% |
| MILK | 2017-06-28 | [Weekly Digest: Milk fat demand outpacing production growth -  \| Ag Proud](https://feedsoft.ai/events/10592-weekly-digest-milk-fat-demand-outpacing-production-growth-ag-proud.md) | -4.1% | -5.2% |

## Sources

- rabobank.com.au: https://www.rabobank.com.au/news/media-releases/2026/global-dairy-markets-heading-towards--balance--as-milk-productio

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.