# Australia's winter crop production forecast to be down 21 per cent

> The June ABARES Australian Crop Report forecasts winter crop production 21% lower at 54.5 million tonnes, 12% below the five-year average. Analysts say Australia may be less competition for Canadian exporters in Asia, though harvest is months away. Dry weather and fertiliser cost reports add to the downside risk.

- Date: 2026-06-05 · published 2026-06-05T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: report · region Canada · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/18772-australia-s-winter-crop-production-forecast-to-be-down-21-per-cent
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Barley](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BARLEY.md)

## Why it matters

Lower Australian exports would ease competition for Canadian wheat and barley in Asian markets, supporting export demand for those grains. Harvest uncertainty keeps the price effect modest for now.

## Read by commodity

- WHEAT: bullish ▲
- BARLEY: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2026-04-29 | [Australia’s wheat production forecast to drop \| World Grain](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19682-australia-s-wheat-production-forecast-to-drop-world-grain.md) | -3.1% | -0.4% |
| WHEAT | 2023-11-06 | [Australian Winter Crop Forecast by Rabobank - Poultry Newspaper](https://feedsoft.ai/events/33123-australian-winter-crop-forecast-by-rabobank-poultry-newspaper.md) | -1.9% | -0.6% |
| WHEAT | 2017-06-13 | [Commodity forecaster tipping cut to winter crop production, but still expected to be fifth largest harvest - ABC News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/70446-commodity-forecaster-tipping-cut-to-winter-crop-production-but-still-expected.md) | +0.8% | +2.2% |
| WHEAT | 2025-04-29 | [Australia’s grain crops forecast upbeat \| World Grain](https://feedsoft.ai/events/25088-australia-s-grain-crops-forecast-upbeat-world-grain.md) | +2.1% | -2.8% |
| WHEAT | 2017-06-14 | [ABARE crop report signals a 33 per cent fall in winter crop production  \| The Rural \| Wagga Wagga, NSW](https://feedsoft.ai/events/70450-abare-crop-report-signals-a-33-per-cent-fall-in-winter-crop-production-the.md) | +0.6% | +1.3% |

## Sources

- producer.com: https://www.producer.com/news/australia-less-of-a-grain-competitor-in-2026-27/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.