# ABARES Outlook: 54.5m tonne crop, but complex season for growers | Farm Online | ACT

> Analysis of the June ABARES report says national winter crop output is forecast at 54.5 million tonnes, down 21% but 4% above the 10-year average. The drop is uneven, with NSW and Queensland down around 37-38% while SA and Victoria hold near average. The Bureau of Meteorology puts a 60-80% chance on below-average winter rainfall.

- Date: 2026-06-02 · published 2026-06-02T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: report · region Australia · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/18771-abares-outlook-54-5m-tonne-crop-but-complex-season-for-growers-farm-online-act
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Barley](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BARLEY.md)

## Why it matters

Regional divergence and dry-weather risk leave the final crop uncertain, which keeps Australian grain export prices volatile. Buyers should watch rainfall for downside risk to the forecast.

## Read by commodity

- WHEAT: bullish ▲
- BARLEY: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2020-02-18 | [ABARES announces further cuts to wheat crop \| Farm Online \| ACT](https://feedsoft.ai/events/54571-abares-announces-further-cuts-to-wheat-crop-farm-online-act.md) | -0.9% | -0.1% |
| WHEAT | 2019-09-10 | [Winter crop down but still above last year \| Farm Online \| ACT](https://feedsoft.ai/events/57043-winter-crop-down-but-still-above-last-year-farm-online-act.md) | +2.6% | +1.0% |
| WHEAT | 2019-02-20 | [ABARES reports the winter crop is the lowest in over a decade  \| Farm Online \| ACT](https://feedsoft.ai/events/60578-abares-reports-the-winter-crop-is-the-lowest-in-over-a-decade-farm-online-act.md) | -3.5% | +0.0% |
| WHEAT | 2019-07-15 | [Global crop estimates down \| Farm Online \| ACT](https://feedsoft.ai/events/58041-global-crop-estimates-down-farm-online-act.md) | -0.5% | -3.1% |
| WHEAT | 2017-06-16 | [ABARES drops estimated crop production, further downside possible \| Farm Online \| ACT](https://feedsoft.ai/events/70448-abares-drops-estimated-crop-production-further-downside-possible-farm-online-act.md) | -0.2% | +0.0% |

## Sources

- farmonline.com.au: https://www.farmonline.com.au/story/9270256/abares-outlook-545m-tonne-crop-but-complex-season-for-growers/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.