# ABARES forecasts hefty drops for wheat, barley, canola - Grain Central

> ABARES initial estimates put Australia's 2026-27 winter crop at 54.5 million tonnes, 21% below 2025-26. Wheat area is forecast at 10.9 million hectares, down 12%, while barley area rises 4% to 5 million hectares. High fertiliser and fuel costs linked to the Strait of Hormuz closure are weighing on grower returns.

- Date: 2026-06-01 · published 2026-06-01T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: report · region Australia · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/18770-abares-forecasts-hefty-drops-for-wheat-barley-canola-grain-central
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Barley](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BARLEY.md), [Canola Meal](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CANMEAL.md)

## Why it matters

A sharp fall in Australian wheat and canola output reduces export competition, supporting world wheat and canola meal prices. The shift toward barley could partly offset the drop in barley's feed-grain supply.

## Read by commodity

- WHEAT: bullish ▲
- BARLEY: bullish ▲
- CANMEAL: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2025-06-02 | [ABARES releases initial forecasts for winter crops - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/24166-abares-releases-initial-forecasts-for-winter-crops-grain-central.md) | +2.9% | +1.7% |
| WHEAT | 2020-02-17 | [ABARES cuts wheat to 15.2Mt, lifts barley to 8.9Mt - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/54568-abares-cuts-wheat-to-15-2mt-lifts-barley-to-8-9mt-grain-central.md) | +5.0% | +9.6% |
| WHEAT | 2018-06-19 | [Wheat/barley price prospects on the rise; oilseeds to fall: ABARES - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/64497-wheat-barley-price-prospects-on-the-rise-oilseeds-to-fall-abares-grain-central.md) | -0.7% | -3.1% |
| WHEAT | 2023-09-07 | [ABARES pegs wheat at 25.4Mt, barley 10.5Mt, canola 5.2Mt](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34062-abares-pegs-wheat-at-25-4mt-barley-10-5mt-canola-5-2mt.md) | +2.1% | -4.6% |
| WHEAT | 2017-04-25 | [FAS USDA forecasts sharp decline of the wheat and barley crops in Australia](https://feedsoft.ai/events/71463-fas-usda-forecasts-sharp-decline-of-the-wheat-and-barley-crops-in-australia.md) | +3.6% | +2.1% |

## Sources

- graincentral.com: https://www.graincentral.com/news/abares-forecasts-hefty-drops-for-wheat-barley-canola/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.