# India's inflation might move higher to 5% in FY27 led by food, energy prices: BoB report - The HinduBusinessLine

> The Bank of Baroda projects India's retail inflation rising to 5% in FY27, driven by food and energy prices. Core inflation is expected to hold near 4.5%, and the report says El Niño needs monitoring.

- Date: 2026-06-03 · published 2026-06-03T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: macro · region India · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/18742-india-s-inflation-might-move-higher-to-5-in-fy27-led-by-food-energy-prices-bob
- Commodities: [Rough Rice](https://feedsoft.ai/c/RICE.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md)

## Why it matters

Higher domestic food inflation can prompt Indian export restrictions on grains, which would tighten world supply. The effect on feed-grain prices is indirect.

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| RICE | 2022-07-12 | [India's retail inflation remains above 7% in June, more rate hikes seen \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/40460-india-s-retail-inflation-remains-above-7-in-june-more-rate-hikes-seen-reuters.md) | +4.7% | +5.5% |
| RICE | 2019-03-22 | [Strong rupee pushes rice prices to seven-month high, dampening exports \| Commodity - Food & Edible Oils - Business Standard](https://feedsoft.ai/events/60167-strong-rupee-pushes-rice-prices-to-seven-month-high-dampening-exports-commodity.md) | -1.6% | -6.0% |
| RICE | 2025-02-19 | [How the falling rupee is lowering Indian food prices for UAE shoppers](https://feedsoft.ai/events/26013-how-the-falling-rupee-is-lowering-indian-food-prices-for-uae-shoppers.md) | -4.0% | -3.4% |
| RICE | 2025-08-21 | [Japan core inflation dips to lowest since March as rice prices cool](https://feedsoft.ai/events/11824-japan-core-inflation-dips-to-lowest-since-march-as-rice-prices-cool.md) | -4.4% | -4.4% |
| RICE | 2026-02-18 | [Platts Thai 5% white rice at near one-month low; highest priced in Asia \| S&P Global](https://feedsoft.ai/events/12008-platts-thai-5-white-rice-at-near-one-month-low-highest-priced-in-asia-s-and-p.md) | -8.3% | +5.4% |
| WHEAT | 2022-07-12 | [India's retail inflation remains above 7% in June, more rate hikes seen \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/40460-india-s-retail-inflation-remains-above-7-in-june-more-rate-hikes-seen-reuters.md) | +7.2% | +7.0% |
| WHEAT | 2021-04-30 | [Inflation-tolerant Fed will boost commodity prices \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/47512-inflation-tolerant-fed-will-boost-commodity-prices-reuters.md) | -5.5% | -5.0% |
| WHEAT | 2026-03-04 | [FAO Food Price Index rises in March as Near East conflict raises energy costs](https://feedsoft.ai/events/12573-fao-food-price-index-rises-in-march-as-near-east-conflict-raises-energy-costs.md) | +1.0% | +2.1% |

## Sources

- thehindubusinessline.com: https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/indias-inflation-might-move-higher-to-5-in-fy27-led-by-food-energy-prices-bob-report/article71055435.ece

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.