# WMO: El Niño/La Niña Update (May 2026) - World | ReliefWeb

> The WMO's May 2026 El Niño/La Niña update says El Niño is developing in the tropical Pacific, with an 80% chance of onset in June to August and near-90% odds of persistence to November. Most models forecast at least a moderate event, possibly strong, with above-average temperatures expected almost everywhere.

- Date: 2026-05-29 · published 2026-05-29T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Global · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/18730-wmo-el-nino-la-nina-update-may-2026-world-reliefweb
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Palm Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/PALMOIL.md), [Rough Rice](https://feedsoft.ai/c/RICE.md)

## Why it matters

A confirmed El Niño raises the risk of crop stress in Asia, Australia and southern Africa and of wetter conditions in parts of South America. This supports a weather premium in feed markets without a single immediate price trigger.

## Read by commodity

- RICE: bullish ▲
- PALMOIL: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2026-03-03 | [El Niño/La Niña Update (February 2026) - World \| ReliefWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/20089-el-nino-la-nina-update-february-2026-world-reliefweb.md) | +1.8% | +1.3% |
| WHEAT | 2019-11-29 | [WMO issues El Niño/La Niña update - World \| ReliefWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/55980-wmo-issues-el-nino-la-nina-update-world-reliefweb.md) | -0.1% | -1.3% |
| WHEAT | 2019-09-02 | [WMO El Niño/La Niña Update (August 2019) - World \| ReliefWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/56990-wmo-el-nino-la-nina-update-august-2019-world-reliefweb.md) | -2.3% | +1.7% |
| WHEAT | 2017-07-07 | [WMO El Niño/La Niña Update, 7 July 2017 - World \| ReliefWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/69875-wmo-el-nino-la-nina-update-7-july-2017-world-reliefweb.md) | -1.7% | +0.9% |
| WHEAT | 2017-04-28 | [WMO El Niño/La Niña Update, 28 April 2017 - World \| ReliefWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/71424-wmo-el-nino-la-nina-update-28-april-2017-world-reliefweb.md) | +2.4% | +1.5% |
| SOY | 2019-05-27 | [WMO El Niño/La Niña Update (May 2019) - World \| ReliefWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/59008-wmo-el-nino-la-nina-update-may-2019-world-reliefweb.md) | +5.9% | +9.6% |
| SOY | 2019-09-02 | [WMO El Niño/La Niña Update (August 2019) - World \| ReliefWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/56990-wmo-el-nino-la-nina-update-august-2019-world-reliefweb.md) | -1.4% | +5.7% |
| SOY | 2019-02-26 | [WMO El Niño/La Niña Update (February 2019) - World \| ReliefWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/60530-wmo-el-nino-la-nina-update-february-2019-world-reliefweb.md) | -0.9% | -0.6% |

## Sources

- reliefweb.int: https://reliefweb.int/report/world/wmo-el-ninola-nina-update-may-2026
- wmo.int: https://wmo.int/resources/publication-series/el-ninola-nina-updates/el-ninola-nina-update-may-2026

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.