# Launch of the WMO El Niño/La Niña Bulletin (June-August 2026)

> The WMO's June 2 El Niño/La Niña update gives an 80% probability that El Niño emerges in June to August 2026, rising to about 90% through late 2026. Most models suggest at least a moderate event, possibly strong, with heavy rain and drought expected in different regions.

- Date: 2026-06-02 · published 2026-06-02T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Global · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/18725-launch-of-the-wmo-el-nino-la-nina-bulletin-june-august-2026
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Palm Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/PALMOIL.md)

## Why it matters

The outlook is a broad climate signal rather than a crop-specific shock, but it raises the odds of drought in some grain and oilseed regions and flooding in others. This adds weather risk premium to feed commodities over the coming months.

## Linked price moves

| Commodity | Date | Window | Change % | z-score | Why linked |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| PALMOIL | 2026-06-02 | 1 | +2.7% | 3.3 | The WMO's 2 June update raised the El Niño probability to 80%, which raises the risk of dry weather cutting palm yields in Southeast Asia and supports prices on the day. |

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2026-08-26 | [El Niño/La Niña Update (August 2026)](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17828-el-nino-la-nina-update-august-2026.md) | +3.3% | +5.7% |
| CORN | 2019-08-20 | [El Niño/La Niña Update (August 2019)](https://feedsoft.ai/events/57495-el-nino-la-nina-update-august-2019.md) | +1.3% | +1.3% |
| CORN | 2019-09-02 | [WMO El Niño/La Niña Update (August 2019) - World \| ReliefWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/56990-wmo-el-nino-la-nina-update-august-2019-world-reliefweb.md) | -2.8% | +1.5% |
| CORN | 2018-06-14 | [El Niño / La Niña Update - June 2018](https://feedsoft.ai/events/64457-el-nino-la-nina-update-june-2018.md) | -3.8% | -6.7% |
| CORN | 2020-01-24 | [2020: El Niño, La Niña or neutral? \| KXAN Austin](https://feedsoft.ai/events/54998-2020-el-nino-la-nina-or-neutral-kxan-austin.md) | -2.5% | -2.5% |
| SOY | 2026-08-26 | [El Niño/La Niña Update (August 2026)](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17828-el-nino-la-nina-update-august-2026.md) | +6.4% | +7.3% |
| SOY | 2019-08-20 | [El Niño/La Niña Update (August 2019)](https://feedsoft.ai/events/57495-el-nino-la-nina-update-august-2019.md) | -0.0% | +4.7% |
| SOY | 2019-09-02 | [WMO El Niño/La Niña Update (August 2019) - World \| ReliefWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/56990-wmo-el-nino-la-nina-update-august-2019-world-reliefweb.md) | -1.4% | +5.7% |

## Sources

- wmo.int: https://wmo.int/secretariat/celeste-saulo/launch-of-wmo-el-ninola-nina-bulletin-june-august-2026

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.