# Crop Monitor Special Report: El Niño 2026-2027: Anticipated Climate and Agricultural Yield Impacts, June 16, 2026 - World | ReliefWeb

> NOAA's June forecast shows El Niño conditions now present, with Niño 3.4 at +0.9°C as of June 15 and a 63% chance of a very strong event (≥2.0°C) peaking November 2026 to January 2027. The Crop Monitor says past El Niño events cut global rice yields about 1.0 to 1.5% below trend and lift soybean yields about 1.5 to 2.0% above trend.

- Date: 2026-06-16 · published 2026-06-16T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Global · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/18724-crop-monitor-special-report-el-nino-2026-2027-anticipated-climate-and
- Commodities: [Rough Rice](https://feedsoft.ai/c/RICE.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md)

## Why it matters

A likely strong El Niño points to lower rice output in Asia and higher soybean yields in key exporting regions, pressuring soy prices while supporting rice. Yield impacts are expected to be regionally uneven, so buyers should watch Southern Africa, India and Australia.

## Read by commodity

- SOY: bearish ▼
- RICE: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| RICE | 2023-11-03 | [El Niño: Anticipatory Action and Response Plan, October 2023 - March 2024 - Mitigating the expected impacts of El Niño-induced climate extremes on agriculture and food security - World \| ReliefWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/33097-el-nino-anticipatory-action-and-response-plan-october-2023-march-2024.md) | +3.1% | +6.3% |
| RICE | 2023-08-07 | [El Niño: Anticipatory Action and Response Plan, August-December 2023 - Mitigating the expected impacts of El Niño-induced climate extremes on agriculture and food security - World \| ReliefWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34472-el-nino-anticipatory-action-and-response-plan-august-december-2023-mitigating.md) | +0.3% | +4.4% |
| RICE | 2026-05-29 | [WMO: El Niño/La Niña Update (May 2026) - World \| ReliefWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18730-wmo-el-nino-la-nina-update-may-2026-world-reliefweb.md) | -4.1% | +1.3% |
| RICE | 2024-03-27 | [DSWD DROMIC Report #12 on the Effects of El Niño as of 27 March 2024, 6PM - Philippines \| ReliefWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/31127-dswd-dromic-report-12-on-the-effects-of-el-nino-as-of-27-march-2024-6pm.md) | -1.7% | +14.3% |
| RICE | 2023-07-25 | [How a warming Pacific Ocean and climate change will impact agriculture \| Nature India](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34964-how-a-warming-pacific-ocean-and-climate-change-will-impact-agriculture-nature.md) | -4.5% | -4.2% |
| SOY | 2019-05-27 | [WMO El Niño/La Niña Update (May 2019) - World \| ReliefWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/59008-wmo-el-nino-la-nina-update-may-2019-world-reliefweb.md) | +5.9% | +9.6% |
| SOY | 2023-04-21 | [As El Niño Makes Its Grand Return, Here's What It Tells Us About Summer Weather and Corn Yields - AgWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13281-as-el-nino-makes-its-grand-return-here-s-what-it-tells-us-about-summer-weather.md) | -4.7% | -11.0% |
| SOY | 2024-01-05 | [New-Crop Soybean Meal Prices Anticipating Larger Argentine Harvest in 2024](https://feedsoft.ai/events/32215-new-crop-soybean-meal-prices-anticipating-larger-argentine-harvest-in-2024.md) | -2.4% | -5.8% |

## Sources

- reliefweb.int: https://reliefweb.int/report/world/crop-monitor-special-report-el-nino-2026-2027-anticipated-climate-and-agricultural-yield-impacts-june-16-2026

---
Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.