# Fertilizer Policies Matter as Much as Fertilizer Supplies - IFDC

> An IFDC bulletin draws on IFPRI modeling to argue that trade and subsidy policies will determine how severely the Strait of Hormuz disruption affects food systems. It notes the closure put about one-third of seaborne fertilizer trade at risk and roughly doubled urea prices in the early months of the crisis.

- Date: 2026-06-23 · published 2026-06-23T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: policy · region Global · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/18707-fertilizer-policies-matter-as-much-as-fertilizer-supplies-ifdc
- Commodities: [Urea](https://feedsoft.ai/c/UREA.md), [Potash (KCl)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/POTASH.md), [DAP](https://feedsoft.ai/c/DAP.md)

## Why it matters

The analysis is policy commentary rather than a new supply event, so it has little direct price impact. It does underline that export restrictions and subsidy choices could re-tighten fertilizer supply if the disruption returns.

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| UREA | 2025-05-01 | [Fertilizer Squeeze Pinches Farmers as India Caps Prices, Supplies Shrink](https://feedsoft.ai/events/25002-fertilizer-squeeze-pinches-farmers-as-india-caps-prices-supplies-shrink.md) | +15.9% | +6.3% |
| UREA | 2026-05-22 | [How fertilizer policies could exacerbate Hormuz price shocks \| IFPRI](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19174-how-fertilizer-policies-could-exacerbate-hormuz-price-shocks-ifpri.md) | -3.7% | -31.3% |
| UREA | 2025-12-04 | [Fertilizer markets soften but remain constrained by trade policies](https://feedsoft.ai/events/5185-fertilizer-markets-soften-but-remain-constrained-by-trade-policies.md) | -0.5% | +8.9% |
| UREA | 2021-08-02 | [China's Fertilizer Firms to Suspend Exports Amid Tight Supplies \| Feed & Grain](https://feedsoft.ai/events/45496-china-s-fertilizer-firms-to-suspend-exports-amid-tight-supplies-feed-and-grain.md) | -0.1% | +1.4% |
| UREA | 2026-10-28 | [DCM macro policy: Vietnam Fertilizer Export Tax Cut… \| Aveluro](https://feedsoft.ai/events/315-dcm-macro-policy-vietnam-fertilizer-export-tax-cut-aveluro.md) | -1.3% | — |
| DAP | 2025-05-01 | [Fertilizer Squeeze Pinches Farmers as India Caps Prices, Supplies Shrink](https://feedsoft.ai/events/25002-fertilizer-squeeze-pinches-farmers-as-india-caps-prices-supplies-shrink.md) | 0.0% | +4.8% |
| DAP | 2026-05-22 | [How fertilizer policies could exacerbate Hormuz price shocks \| IFPRI](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19174-how-fertilizer-policies-could-exacerbate-hormuz-price-shocks-ifpri.md) | +1.6% | +1.3% |
| DAP | 2025-12-04 | [Fertilizer markets soften but remain constrained by trade policies](https://feedsoft.ai/events/5185-fertilizer-markets-soften-but-remain-constrained-by-trade-policies.md) | -0.8% | -3.8% |

## Sources

- ifdc.org: https://ifdc.org/2026/06/23/fertilizer-crisis-response-bulletin-17-fertilizer-policies-matter-as-much-as-fertilizer-supplies/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.