# USD/BRL Near R$5.09: Can Brazil's Carry Trade Absorb the New 25% US Tariff? | EBC Financial Group

> USD/BRL traded near 5.09 in mid-July, leaving the real about 8% stronger than a year earlier. A 25% additional US tariff on non-exempt Brazilian imports takes effect July 22, with coffee, beef, orange juice and some energy products exempt. The article says the Selic rate at 14.25% should limit the immediate currency impact.

- Date: 2026-07-16 · published 2026-07-16T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: trade · region Brazil · magnitude high
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/18567-usd-brl-near-r-5-09-can-brazil-s-carry-trade-absorb-the-new-25-us-tariff-ebc
- Commodities: [Brazilian Real (BRL per USD)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/USDBRL.md)

## Why it matters

The tariff could hit Brazilian export demand and weaken the real if it spreads to capital flows or the rate outlook, which would make Brazilian exports cheaper for other buyers. Exemptions for beef and coffee limit the direct effect on agricultural trade.

## Read by commodity

- USDBRL: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| USDBRL | 2019-10-18 | [After trade talks in U.S., China ramps up Brazilian soy purchases](https://feedsoft.ai/events/56428-after-trade-talks-in-u-s-china-ramps-up-brazilian-soy-purchases.md) | -3.6% | +0.9% |
| USDBRL | 2020-05-28 | [China securing Brazilian soy with US trade tensions rising](https://feedsoft.ai/events/53167-china-securing-brazilian-soy-with-us-trade-tensions-rising.md) | -4.5% | +0.4% |
| USDBRL | 2019-12-02 | [Brazil's real falls to 4.25 per dollar after Trump says he will restore tariffs on Brazil steel imports](https://feedsoft.ai/events/55773-brazil-s-real-falls-to-4-25-per-dollar-after-trump-says-he-will-restore-tariffs.md) | -1.2% | -5.0% |
| USDBRL | 2025-07-17 | [U.S. tariff dispute weighs on Brazil’s real and interest rates](https://feedsoft.ai/events/24002-u-s-tariff-dispute-weighs-on-brazil-s-real-and-interest-rates.md) | -0.3% | -2.9% |
| USDBRL | 2025-07-25 | [Latam currencies decline as US tariff deadline looms — TradingView News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/24000-latam-currencies-decline-as-us-tariff-deadline-looms-tradingview-news.md) | +1.2% | -0.6% |

## Sources

- ebc.com: https://www.ebc.com/forex/usd-brl-25-us-tariff-brazil-carry-trade

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.