# Brent: Conflict risks keep prices elevated – Commerzbank — Octa

> Commerzbank says Brent will stay volatile and elevated as Middle East tensions and chokepoint disruptions constrain supply. It expects OPEC+ to raise September targets by about 188,000 bpd before pausing, contingent on the Strait of Hormuz staying open.

- Date: 2026-07-31 · published 2026-07-31T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: geopolitics · region Global · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/18515-brent-conflict-risks-keep-prices-elevated-commerzbank-octa
- Commodities: [Crude Oil (Brent)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BRENT.md), [Crude Oil (WTI)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WTI.md)

## Why it matters

Sustained elevated crude prices keep energy costs high for feed transport and support vegetable oil and biofuel demand.

## Read by commodity

- WTI: bullish ▲
- BRENT: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| BRENT | 2023-10-09 | [Middle East conflict fuels rise in commodity prices \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/9277-middle-east-conflict-fuels-rise-in-commodity-prices-reuters.md) | +7.4% | +0.0% |
| BRENT | 2025-06-17 | [Oil prices rise more than 4% as Iran-Israel conflict escalates \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/10994-oil-prices-rise-more-than-4-as-iran-israel-conflict-escalates-reuters.md) | -1.7% | -5.5% |
| BRENT | 2024-10-03 | [Crude oil prices today: WTI rises as Biden comments on Middle East risk](https://feedsoft.ai/events/10027-crude-oil-prices-today-wti-rises-as-biden-comments-on-middle-east-risk.md) | +3.3% | -2.0% |
| BRENT | 2024-10-07 | [Oil prices extend gains, lifting Brent crude towards $80 on fears of wider Middle East conflict \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/10025-oil-prices-extend-gains-lifting-brent-crude-towards-80-on-fears-of-wider-middle.md) | +1.2% | -6.8% |
| BRENT | 2026-07-22 | [Oil price rises above $95 mark as Middle East conflict escalates \| Oil \| The Guardian](https://feedsoft.ai/events/9932-oil-price-rises-above-95-mark-as-middle-east-conflict-escalates-oil-the-guardian.md) | -8.2% | +0.8% |
| WTI | 2023-10-09 | [Middle East conflict fuels rise in commodity prices \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/9277-middle-east-conflict-fuels-rise-in-commodity-prices-reuters.md) | +5.9% | -2.2% |
| WTI | 2025-06-17 | [Oil prices rise more than 4% as Iran-Israel conflict escalates \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/10994-oil-prices-rise-more-than-4-as-iran-israel-conflict-escalates-reuters.md) | -9.9% | -6.8% |
| WTI | 2024-10-03 | [Crude oil prices today: WTI rises as Biden comments on Middle East risk](https://feedsoft.ai/events/10027-crude-oil-prices-today-wti-rises-as-biden-comments-on-middle-east-risk.md) | +4.4% | -2.4% |

## Sources

- octabroker.com: https://www.octabroker.com/markets/news/view/1246199/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.