# USDA raises milk output forecast but cuts milk price outlook
						 | The Dairy Site

> The USDA raised its 2026 US milk production forecast by 1.0 billion pounds to 236.4 billion, with higher cow numbers and milk per cow. It lowered cheddar, nonfat dry milk and whey price forecasts, while raising the butter forecast, and cut the 2026 Class III forecast to $16.60 per hundredweight.

- Date: 2026-07-10 · published 2026-07-10T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: report · region US · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/18340-usda-raises-milk-output-forecast-but-cuts-milk-price-outlook-the-dairy-site
- Commodities: [Milk (Class III)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/MILK.md)

## Why it matters

Larger expected milk output and lower product price forecasts point to weaker dairy prices, which lowers the value of dairy-linked feed demand.

## Read by commodity

- MILK: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| MILK | 2025-10-06 | [USDA raises milk output forecast for 2025 and 2026
						 \| The Dairy Site](https://feedsoft.ai/events/22411-usda-raises-milk-output-forecast-for-2025-and-2026-the-dairy-site.md) | -1.7% | -1.7% |
| MILK | 2020-09-11 | [USDA: Milk output forecast raised; smaller harvest boosts feed price projections - Progressive Dairy \| Ag Proud](https://feedsoft.ai/events/51235-usda-milk-output-forecast-raised-smaller-harvest-boosts-feed-price-projections.md) | -1.6% | +24.9% |
| MILK | 2026-06-23 | [Higher Milk Production Forecasts Temper Dairy Price Outlook - Dairy Producer](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18807-higher-milk-production-forecasts-temper-dairy-price-outlook-dairy-producer.md) | -0.0% | -1.6% |
| MILK | 2022-10-21 | [The Farmer's Exchange Online USDA Raises Forecasts for Milk Production, Butter, Cheese Prices](https://feedsoft.ai/events/39142-the-farmer-s-exchange-online-usda-raises-forecasts-for-milk-production-butter.md) | 0.0% | -3.7% |
| MILK | 2022-10-05 | [USDA Lowers Its 2022-2023 All-Milk Price Forecast - Dairy Herd](https://feedsoft.ai/events/5115-usda-lowers-its-2022-2023-all-milk-price-forecast-dairy-herd.md) | +9.9% | +10.0% |

## Sources

- thedairysite.com: https://www.thedairysite.com/news/usda-raises-milk-output-forecast-but-cuts-milk-price-outlook

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.