# USDA forecasts smallest wheat harvest since 1970 | Farmtario

> The USDA's July WASDE lowered US 2026-27 wheat production to 1.536 billion bushels, the smallest crop since 1970-71, and cut world wheat ending stocks to 272.84 million tonnes. It also lowered US 2026-27 corn ending stocks to 1.79 billion bushels, below analyst expectations. Wheat futures rose about 3% ahead of the report on Sea of Azov shipping disruption from the Russia-Ukraine war.

- Date: 2026-07-10 · published 2026-07-10T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: report · region US · magnitude high
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/18275-usda-forecasts-smallest-wheat-harvest-since-1970-farmtario
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Wheat (HRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/KWHEAT.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md)

## Why it matters

A sharply smaller US wheat crop and tighter world stocks support wheat and corn prices, and the Azov disruption adds a geopolitical premium. Buyers of feed grains should expect firmer prices through the rest of the season.

## Read by commodity

- CORN: bullish ▲
- WHEAT: bullish ▲
- KWHEAT: bullish ▲

## Linked price moves

| Commodity | Date | Window | Change % | z-score | Why linked |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| KWHEAT | 2026-07-14 | 5 | +12.1% | 3.8 | USDA lowered US wheat production to the smallest since 1970 and cut world ending stocks, a supply shock that supported the rally. |

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2026-05-12 | [USDA Projects Smallest US Wheat Harvest Since 1972 Due to Plains Drought - AgWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/10792-usda-projects-smallest-us-wheat-harvest-since-1972-due-to-plains-drought-agweb.md) | +2.0% | -3.2% |
| WHEAT | 2022-09-30 | [UPDATE 1-U.S. Wheat Harvest Falls Below Forecasts; Prices Rally](https://feedsoft.ai/events/39630-update-1-u-s-wheat-harvest-falls-below-forecasts-prices-rally.md) | +0.4% | -10.7% |
| WHEAT | 2024-09-19 | [France lowers soft wheat harvest and export forecasts](https://feedsoft.ai/events/28264-france-lowers-soft-wheat-harvest-and-export-forecasts.md) | +11.4% | +5.6% |
| WHEAT | 2024-01-02 | [Experts have lowered the forecast for the soft wheat harvest in the EU](https://feedsoft.ai/events/32067-experts-have-lowered-the-forecast-for-the-soft-wheat-harvest-in-the-eu.md) | -2.8% | -2.7% |
| WHEAT | 2022-09-30 | [Key data in USDA stocks and wheat harvest reports, and difference from market forecasts - Grain Price News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/39554-key-data-in-usda-stocks-and-wheat-harvest-reports-and-difference-from-market.md) | +0.4% | -10.7% |
| KWHEAT | 2026-05-12 | [USDA Projects Smallest US Wheat Harvest Since 1972 Due to Plains Drought - AgWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/10792-usda-projects-smallest-us-wheat-harvest-since-1972-due-to-plains-drought-agweb.md) | +4.5% | -6.3% |
| KWHEAT | 2022-09-30 | [UPDATE 1-U.S. Wheat Harvest Falls Below Forecasts; Prices Rally](https://feedsoft.ai/events/39630-update-1-u-s-wheat-harvest-falls-below-forecasts-prices-rally.md) | -0.2% | -3.6% |
| KWHEAT | 2022-09-30 | [Key data in USDA stocks and wheat harvest reports, and difference from market forecasts - Grain Price News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/39554-key-data-in-usda-stocks-and-wheat-harvest-reports-and-difference-from-market.md) | -0.2% | -3.6% |

## Sources

- farmtario.com: https://farmtario.com/daily/usda-forecasts-smallest-wheat-harvest-since-1970/

---
Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.