# To hike or not to hike: What today's Fed decision means for commodity markets - Pro Farmer

> Fed funds futures priced a more than one-in-three chance of a 25-basis-point hike at the July 29 FOMC meeting, while prediction markets put it nearer 25%. The Fed was divided between hawks worried about inflation from Iran-war bottlenecks and officials who wanted to wait. Commentators said a hawkish hold was the most likely compromise.

- Date: 2026-07-29 · published 2026-07-29T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: macro · region US · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/18261-to-hike-or-not-to-hike-what-today-s-fed-decision-means-for-commodity-markets
- Commodities: [US Dollar (Broad)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/DXY.md)

## Why it matters

A surprise hike would likely extend the dollar rally, which weighs on dollar-priced ag commodities and can reduce US export competitiveness. Fertilizer and energy costs remain elevated because of the Iran war.

## Read by commodity

- DXY: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| DXY | 2022-12-14 | [Oanda's Ed Moya talks markets' reaction to Fed decision\| FXMAG.COM](https://feedsoft.ai/events/38165-oanda-s-ed-moya-talks-markets-reaction-to-fed-decision-fxmag-com.md) | +0.2% | -2.0% |
| DXY | 2022-04-25 | [Fed’s hawkish stance keeps commodity markets under pressure](https://feedsoft.ai/events/41759-fed-s-hawkish-stance-keeps-commodity-markets-under-pressure.md) | +1.2% | +1.1% |
| DXY | 2021-12-17 | [What will the Fed’s expected rate hikes mean for Korean market? - The Korea Herald](https://feedsoft.ai/events/43844-what-will-the-fed-s-expected-rate-hikes-mean-for-korean-market-the-korea-herald.md) | -0.2% | -0.8% |
| DXY | 2024-06-29 | [Commodity markets to focus on US Jobs data, comments from Fed chair for clearer insights on policy outlook next week](https://feedsoft.ai/events/29640-commodity-markets-to-focus-on-us-jobs-data-comments-from-fed-chair-for-clearer.md) | -0.7% | -0.1% |
| DXY | 2022-10-31 | [What Does A Central Bank Pivot Mean For Commodity Prices? \| FXEmpire](https://feedsoft.ai/events/39038-what-does-a-central-bank-pivot-mean-for-commodity-prices-fxempire.md) | -0.1% | -2.8% |

## Sources

- profarmer.com: https://www.profarmer.com/news/hike-or-not-hike-what-todays-fed-decision-means-commodity-markets

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.