# Global wheat output may drop 24 million tonnes next season on Iran war, El Nino impacts - The HinduBusinessLine

> The IGC and USDA project global wheat output falling about 23 million tonnes to 821 mt in 2026-27, with lower US and Canadian crops. Consumption is seen rising and ending stocks falling to 279 mt, while Ukraine war and Iran conflict disruptions add risk.

- Date: 2026-07-31 · published 2026-07-31T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: report · region Global · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/18246-global-wheat-output-may-drop-24-million-tonnes-next-season-on-iran-war-el-nino
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Wheat (HRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/KWHEAT.md)

## Why it matters

A projected drop in production with stocks falling tightens the wheat balance and supports prices. Higher Russian and Ukrainian output partly offsets the decline.

## Read by commodity

- WHEAT: bullish ▲
- KWHEAT: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2026-05-13 | [Geopolitical crisis, weather may help India export 2 mt of wheat, says USDA - The HinduBusinessLine](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19227-geopolitical-crisis-weather-may-help-india-export-2-mt-of-wheat-says-usda-the.md) | +0.9% | -3.8% |
| WHEAT | 2023-04-30 | [A glimpse into the new wheat season – a global perspective](https://feedsoft.ai/events/36462-a-glimpse-into-the-new-wheat-season-a-global-perspective.md) | +1.9% | -2.2% |
| WHEAT | 2025-01-22 | [Global wheat carryover stocks in 2025 to hit nine-year low: USDA  - Milling Middle East & Africa Magazine - No.1 Grains Industry Magazine & Website for Africa & the Middle East](https://feedsoft.ai/events/26548-global-wheat-carryover-stocks-in-2025-to-hit-nine-year-low-usda-milling-middle.md) | +3.1% | +5.1% |
| WHEAT | 2024-08-14 | [India’s role as key supplier in global grains market has shrunk, says USDA - The HinduBusinessLine](https://feedsoft.ai/events/28730-india-s-role-as-key-supplier-in-global-grains-market-has-shrunk-says-usda-the.md) | -6.3% | -2.5% |
| WHEAT | 2020-07-14 | [Global wheat production on the decline - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/52052-global-wheat-production-on-the-decline-grain-central.md) | +0.4% | -1.8% |
| KWHEAT | 2026-05-13 | [Geopolitical crisis, weather may help India export 2 mt of wheat, says USDA - The HinduBusinessLine](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19227-geopolitical-crisis-weather-may-help-india-export-2-mt-of-wheat-says-usda-the.md) | -1.4% | -13.1% |
| KWHEAT | 2023-04-30 | [A glimpse into the new wheat season – a global perspective](https://feedsoft.ai/events/36462-a-glimpse-into-the-new-wheat-season-a-global-perspective.md) | +9.0% | +1.5% |
| KWHEAT | 2025-01-22 | [Global wheat carryover stocks in 2025 to hit nine-year low: USDA  - Milling Middle East & Africa Magazine - No.1 Grains Industry Magazine & Website for Africa & the Middle East](https://feedsoft.ai/events/26548-global-wheat-carryover-stocks-in-2025-to-hit-nine-year-low-usda-milling-middle.md) | -2.5% | +6.6% |

## Sources

- thehindubusinessline.com: https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/agri-business/global-wheat-output-may-drop-24-million-tonnes-next-season-on-iran-war-el-nino-impacts/article71290391.ece

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.