# El Niño 2026: Converging Pressures on Vegetable Oil Markets - Center for Commercial Agriculture

> Purdue researchers say a 97-98% probability of El Niño persisting through 2026 and a peak Niño3.4 anomaly near 2.5-2.6°C. They identify converging pressures on vegetable oils from biofuel demand and El Niño-driven palm and oilseed supply losses, while cautioning against extending this to grains.

- Date: 2026-08-01 · published 2026-08-01T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Global · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/18245-el-nino-2026-converging-pressures-on-vegetable-oil-markets-center-for
- Commodities: [Palm Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/PALMOIL.md), [Soybean Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SBO.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md)

## Why it matters

Reduced palm oil yields in Southeast Asia combined with biofuel-driven soybean oil demand point to firmer vegetable oil prices. Grain effects are described as more mixed.

## Read by commodity

- SBO: bullish ▲
- SOY: neutral
- PALMOIL: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| PALMOIL | 2022-02-17 | [Why is the price of vegetable oil surging? - Marketplace](https://feedsoft.ai/events/8759-why-is-the-price-of-vegetable-oil-surging-marketplace.md) | +4.5% | +13.8% |
| PALMOIL | 2025-06-04 | [Global Vegetable Oil Markets Face Tariff, Weather Turbulence](https://feedsoft.ai/events/10951-global-vegetable-oil-markets-face-tariff-weather-turbulence.md) | -1.0% | +4.1% |
| PALMOIL | 2023-03-08 | [Global vegetable oil prices seen rising for the rest of 2023 on supply uncertainty: Oilworld's Mielke](https://feedsoft.ai/events/36959-global-vegetable-oil-prices-seen-rising-for-the-rest-of-2023-on-supply.md) | -4.1% | -5.5% |
| PALMOIL | 2025-04-10 | [Vegetable oil prices rise amid tariff chaos and climate pressures](https://feedsoft.ai/events/25207-vegetable-oil-prices-rise-amid-tariff-chaos-and-climate-pressures.md) | +0.8% | -3.2% |
| PALMOIL | 2023-09-01 | [Global El Niño forecasts predict a Very Strong event for 2023/24](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34476-global-el-nino-forecasts-predict-a-very-strong-event-for-2023-24.md) | -4.5% | -7.0% |
| SBO | 2022-02-17 | [Why is the price of vegetable oil surging? - Marketplace](https://feedsoft.ai/events/8759-why-is-the-price-of-vegetable-oil-surging-marketplace.md) | +6.8% | +4.4% |
| SBO | 2023-03-08 | [Global vegetable oil prices seen rising for the rest of 2023 on supply uncertainty: Oilworld's Mielke](https://feedsoft.ai/events/36959-global-vegetable-oil-prices-seen-rising-for-the-rest-of-2023-on-supply.md) | -5.5% | -4.5% |
| SBO | 2025-04-10 | [Vegetable oil prices rise amid tariff chaos and climate pressures](https://feedsoft.ai/events/25207-vegetable-oil-prices-rise-amid-tariff-chaos-and-climate-pressures.md) | +2.1% | +4.3% |

## Sources

- ag.purdue.edu: https://ag.purdue.edu/commercialag/home/paer-article/el-nino-2026-converging-pressures-on-vegetable-oil-markets/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.