# El Niño casts a shadow over agri markets, but global food fears may be overblown | articles | ING THINK

> ING says El Niño is a growing risk for late 2026 and could drive food inflation, but its global output impact is fairly limited. Asia-Pacific is more exposed, and the Indian monsoon has started slowly.

- Date: 2026-07-20 · published 2026-07-20T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Asia-Pacific · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/18242-el-nino-casts-a-shadow-over-agri-markets-but-global-food-fears-may-be-overblown
- Commodities: [Rough Rice](https://feedsoft.ai/c/RICE.md), [Palm Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/PALMOIL.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md)

## Why it matters

Regional production losses in Asia-Pacific could tighten feed grain and rice supplies and support prices. The global effect is seen as modest, so the price impact is moderate.

## Read by commodity

- CORN: bullish ▲
- RICE: bullish ▲
- PALMOIL: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| RICE | 2023-09-01 | [Global El Niño forecasts predict a Very Strong event for 2023/24](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34476-global-el-nino-forecasts-predict-a-very-strong-event-for-2023-24.md) | -4.1% | -5.2% |
| RICE | 2026-04-24 | [Forecast for strong El Niño fans worries about global crops](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19633-forecast-for-strong-el-nino-fans-worries-about-global-crops.md) | -2.0% | +18.1% |
| RICE | 2023-06-16 | [FACTBOX: Mapping El Nino's impact on crop yields, global food trade in 2023-24](https://feedsoft.ai/events/35405-factbox-mapping-el-nino-s-impact-on-crop-yields-global-food-trade-in-2023-24.md) | -0.2% | -13.4% |
| RICE | 2023-09-28 | [Risks to global food commodity prices from El Niño](https://feedsoft.ai/events/33997-risks-to-global-food-commodity-prices-from-el-nino.md) | -3.3% | -0.3% |
| RICE | 2026-04-09 | [Rising Odds of Strong El Niño Point to Global Weather and Crop Impacts - Bloomberg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19631-rising-odds-of-strong-el-nino-point-to-global-weather-and-crop-impacts-bloomberg.md) | -1.4% | +6.9% |
| PALMOIL | 2023-09-01 | [Global El Niño forecasts predict a Very Strong event for 2023/24](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34476-global-el-nino-forecasts-predict-a-very-strong-event-for-2023-24.md) | -4.5% | -7.0% |
| PALMOIL | 2026-07-27 | [INFOGRAPHIC: El Niño may lead to global food supply volatility in 2026-27 \| S&P Global](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18244-infographic-el-nino-may-lead-to-global-food-supply-volatility-in-2026-27-s-and.md) | -0.2% | +4.8% |
| PALMOIL | 2026-04-24 | [Forecast for strong El Niño fans worries about global crops](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19633-forecast-for-strong-el-nino-fans-worries-about-global-crops.md) | -0.0% | -1.4% |

## Sources

- think.ing.com: https://think.ing.com/articles/el-nino-casts-a-shadow-over-agri-markets/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.