# Brazilian Real: Politics weighs but carry supports – ING

> ING says the Brazilian real underperformed in a supportive carry environment after a bank downgraded Brazilian equities and a poll showed Lula widening his lead ahead of the October elections. The bank views this as the first real political hit to the currency this year. It expects high implied yields and Brazil's net energy exporter status to limit downside, with USD/BRL unlikely to break 5.22 on local news alone.

- Date: 2026-08-12 · published 2026-08-12T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: macro · region Brazil · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/18110-brazilian-real-politics-weighs-but-carry-supports-ing
- Commodities: [Brazilian Real (BRL per USD)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/USDBRL.md)

## Why it matters

Political pressure on the real can make Brazilian soybean and corn exports more competitive in the short term. The bank's view that the dollar would need to strengthen broadly to push USD/BRL higher suggests limited direct effect on feed prices.

## Read by commodity

- USDBRL: neutral

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| USDBRL | 2020-09-16 | [USD/BRL: BCB unable to support the Brazilian real - TDS - Forex Crunch](https://feedsoft.ai/events/51309-usd-brl-bcb-unable-to-support-the-brazilian-real-tds-forex-crunch.md) | +3.5% | +5.6% |
| USDBRL | 2026-03-19 | [Brazilian Real Steady After Copom](https://feedsoft.ai/events/20384-brazilian-real-steady-after-copom.md) | +0.3% | -3.9% |
| USDBRL | 2026-06-24 | [Brazilian Real: LatAm policy paths and FX levels – Societe Generale](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19020-brazilian-real-latam-policy-paths-and-fx-levels-societe-generale.md) | -0.3% | -2.4% |
| USDBRL | 2025-03-21 | [Foreign bets against Brazilian real drop $35bn in three months](https://feedsoft.ai/events/25805-foreign-bets-against-brazilian-real-drop-35bn-in-three-months.md) | +1.1% | +2.8% |
| USDBRL | 2022-04-27 | [Brazilian real, Chilean peso steady against raging dollar \| Financial Post](https://feedsoft.ai/events/6862-brazilian-real-chilean-peso-steady-against-raging-dollar-financial-post.md) | +0.3% | -3.2% |

## Sources

- fxstreet.com: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brazilian-real-politics-weighs-but-carry-supports-ing-202608120827

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.