# Brazilian Real: Election risks then renewed gains – Commerzbank

> Commerzbank expects the real to stay under pressure against the dollar until the October presidential election as markets price political risk. The bank still sees the real appreciating afterward, with USD/BRL at 5.20 by end-2026 and 4.80 by end-2027. It attributes support to the central bank's hawkish stance and high real interest rates.

- Date: 2026-08-19 · published 2026-08-19T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: macro · region Brazil · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/18107-brazilian-real-election-risks-then-renewed-gains-commerzbank
- Commodities: [Brazilian Real (BRL per USD)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/USDBRL.md)

## Why it matters

Near-term BRL weakness would make Brazilian soybean and corn exports cheaper in dollar terms, while later appreciation would reverse that. The timing depends on election outcomes, which adds uncertainty to Brazilian export pricing.

## Read by commodity

- USDBRL: neutral

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| USDBRL | 2026-10-04 | [Brazilian Real Faces Uncertain Path After Election as Fiscal Risks Loom](https://feedsoft.ai/events/4937-brazilian-real-faces-uncertain-path-after-election-as-fiscal-risks-loom.md) | -4.7% | — |
| USDBRL | 2023-08-07 | [Outlook for the Brazilian Real and the real economy](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34792-outlook-for-the-brazilian-real-and-the-real-economy.md) | +0.8% | +1.8% |
| USDBRL | 2023-12-13 | [USD/BRL: Real well positioned despite rate cuts – Commerzbank — Octa](https://feedsoft.ai/events/32941-usd-brl-real-well-positioned-despite-rate-cuts-commerzbank-octa.md) | -2.0% | -1.6% |
| USDBRL | 2026-03-19 | [Brazilian Real Steady After Copom](https://feedsoft.ai/events/20384-brazilian-real-steady-after-copom.md) | +0.3% | -3.9% |
| USDBRL | 2025-03-21 | [Foreign bets against Brazilian real drop $35bn in three months](https://feedsoft.ai/events/25805-foreign-bets-against-brazilian-real-drop-35bn-in-three-months.md) | +1.1% | +2.8% |

## Sources

- fxstreet.com: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brazilian-real-election-risks-then-renewed-gains-commerzbank-202608190939

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.