# Despite the odds ABARES tips big harvest but farm profits dive 39pc | Farm Online | ACT

> ABARES expects Australian agricultural production to be worth about $99.4 billion in 2026-27, down from a record $104.6 billion. Farm profits are forecast to fall 39% because of lower revenues and higher fuel, fertiliser and freight costs linked to Middle East tensions. Export grain values are expected to rise 4%.

- Date: 2026-08-31 · published 2026-08-31T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: report · region Australia · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/17875-despite-the-odds-abares-tips-big-harvest-but-farm-profits-dive-39pc-farm-online
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Barley](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BARLEY.md)

## Why it matters

Higher input costs and a smaller export volume support grain export values, but the profit squeeze mainly affects farm finances rather than near-term feed prices.

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2019-02-20 | [ABARES reports the winter crop is the lowest in over a decade  \| Farm Online \| ACT](https://feedsoft.ai/events/60578-abares-reports-the-winter-crop-is-the-lowest-in-over-a-decade-farm-online-act.md) | -3.5% | +0.0% |
| WHEAT | 2022-02-16 | [Record harvest may be even bigger than first thought \| Farm Online \| ACT](https://feedsoft.ai/events/42663-record-harvest-may-be-even-bigger-than-first-thought-farm-online-act.md) | +3.3% | +13.9% |
| WHEAT | 2021-06-09 | [ABARES flags big year for grain growers  \| Farm Online \| ACT](https://feedsoft.ai/events/46545-abares-flags-big-year-for-grain-growers-farm-online-act.md) | +5.6% | -5.2% |
| WHEAT | 2021-09-08 | [ABARES makes massive increase in production forecast \| Farm Online \| ACT](https://feedsoft.ai/events/45028-abares-makes-massive-increase-in-production-forecast-farm-online-act.md) | +2.2% | +5.0% |
| WHEAT | 2020-09-09 | [ABARES ratchets up forecasts \| Farm Online \| ACT](https://feedsoft.ai/events/51088-abares-ratchets-up-forecasts-farm-online-act.md) | +0.3% | +8.1% |

## Sources

- farmonline.com.au: https://www.farmonline.com.au/story/9341090/despite-the-odds-abares-tips-big-harvest-but-farm-profits-dive-39pc/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.