# Why higher fertilizer prices are here to stay

> CoBank argues that fertilizer prices, especially phosphates, will stay above pre-Iran war levels through 2028. It says the current disruption stems from damaged production capacity and raw-material constraints rather than rerouted trade, making it longer-lasting than the 2022 shock. Ammonia and sulfur are highlighted as key cost drivers, with three of the world's ten largest ammonia exporters behind Hormuz.

- Date: 2026-09-01 · published 2026-09-01T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: geopolitics · region US · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/17863-why-higher-fertilizer-prices-are-here-to-stay
- Commodities: [Urea](https://feedsoft.ai/c/UREA.md), [DAP](https://feedsoft.ai/c/DAP.md)

## Why it matters

Persistent input costs for nitrogen and phosphate raise the cost base for feed grain and oilseed production, supporting prices over the medium term. Demand destruction from high fertilizer costs could partly offset this.

## Read by commodity

- DAP: bullish ▲
- UREA: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| UREA | 2022-03-22 | [Fertilizer prices are at record highs. Here's what that means](https://feedsoft.ai/events/5512-fertilizer-prices-are-at-record-highs-here-s-what-that-means.md) | +0.4% | -0.7% |
| UREA | 2022-05-31 | [Why fertiliser prices are soaring](https://feedsoft.ai/events/41723-why-fertiliser-prices-are-soaring.md) | -8.8% | -13.2% |
| UREA | 2026-08-04 | [5 warning signs that fertilizer prices will stay high](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17865-5-warning-signs-that-fertilizer-prices-will-stay-high.md) | -3.9% | +5.8% |
| UREA | 2024-03-21 | [Who’s afraid of high fertilizer prices? \| IFPRI](https://feedsoft.ai/events/31144-who-s-afraid-of-high-fertilizer-prices-ifpri.md) | -0.4% | -19.1% |
| UREA | 2021-09-21 | [Food prices poised to surge with fertilizer at highest in years](https://feedsoft.ai/events/45024-food-prices-poised-to-surge-with-fertilizer-at-highest-in-years.md) | +2.7% | +40.3% |
| DAP | 2022-03-22 | [Fertilizer prices are at record highs. Here's what that means](https://feedsoft.ai/events/5512-fertilizer-prices-are-at-record-highs-here-s-what-that-means.md) | +2.1% | 0.0% |
| DAP | 2022-05-31 | [Why fertiliser prices are soaring](https://feedsoft.ai/events/41723-why-fertiliser-prices-are-soaring.md) | -4.4% | -0.9% |
| DAP | 2026-08-04 | [5 warning signs that fertilizer prices will stay high](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17865-5-warning-signs-that-fertilizer-prices-will-stay-high.md) | -0.6% | -1.1% |

## Sources

- cobank.com: https://www.cobank.com/knowledge-exchange/why-higher-fertilizer-prices-are-here-to-stay

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.