# How fertilizer policies could exacerbate Hormuz price shocks - OPEC Fund for International Development

> An OPEC Fund analysis says the closure of the Strait of Hormuz after the outbreak of the Iran war on February 28, 2026 put about one-third of seaborne fertilizer trade at risk. Urea prices roughly doubled and DAP rose about 35% through April. The analysis argues that export restrictions by non-Gulf suppliers and subsidy-driven import policies in large importers such as India and Pakistan will further shape world prices.

- Date: 2026-08-25 · published 2026-08-25T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: policy · region Global · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/17860-how-fertilizer-policies-could-exacerbate-hormuz-price-shocks-opec-fund-for
- Commodities: [Urea](https://feedsoft.ai/c/UREA.md), [DAP](https://feedsoft.ai/c/DAP.md)

## Why it matters

Sudden export restrictions or import-policy shifts by major fertilizer buyers can move world urea and DAP prices by hundreds of dollars per ton. That raises input costs for feed-grain production and adds upside risk to crop and feed prices.

## Read by commodity

- DAP: bullish ▲
- UREA: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| UREA | 2026-05-22 | [How fertilizer policies could exacerbate Hormuz price shocks \| IFPRI](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19174-how-fertilizer-policies-could-exacerbate-hormuz-price-shocks-ifpri.md) | -3.7% | -31.3% |
| UREA | 2023-04-14 | [WTO Members Should Avoid Export Restrictions on Fertilizers to Deliver on Food Security \| International Institute for Sustainable Development](https://feedsoft.ai/events/36328-wto-members-should-avoid-export-restrictions-on-fertilizers-to-deliver-on-food.md) | -0.8% | +3.5% |
| UREA | 2023-09-26 | [Fertilizer prices surge after China imposes export ban - VnExpress International](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34021-fertilizer-prices-surge-after-china-imposes-export-ban-vnexpress-international.md) | -3.2% | -6.5% |
| UREA | 2021-08-07 | [Chinese fertiliser factories 'focusing on local market' as international prices skyrocket - ABC News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/45880-chinese-fertiliser-factories-focusing-on-local-market-as-international-prices.md) | 0.0% | +18.3% |
| UREA | 2021-11-15 | [Soaring fertilizer prices add to inflationary pressures and food security concerns](https://feedsoft.ai/events/12681-soaring-fertilizer-prices-add-to-inflationary-pressures-and-food-security.md) | -0.6% | -1.8% |
| DAP | 2026-05-22 | [How fertilizer policies could exacerbate Hormuz price shocks \| IFPRI](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19174-how-fertilizer-policies-could-exacerbate-hormuz-price-shocks-ifpri.md) | +1.6% | +1.3% |
| DAP | 2021-08-07 | [Chinese fertiliser factories 'focusing on local market' as international prices skyrocket - ABC News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/45880-chinese-fertiliser-factories-focusing-on-local-market-as-international-prices.md) | 0.0% | +5.6% |
| DAP | 2021-11-15 | [Soaring fertilizer prices add to inflationary pressures and food security concerns](https://feedsoft.ai/events/12681-soaring-fertilizer-prices-add-to-inflationary-pressures-and-food-security.md) | -0.7% | +2.6% |

## Sources

- opecfund.org: https://opecfund.org/news-events/news/how-fertilizer-policies-could-exacerbate-hormuz-price-shocks

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.