# Brazilian Real: Exchange rate seen weaker into year-end – Rabobank

> Rabobank expects the Brazilian real to weaken to 5.35 per dollar by year-end, citing a narrower rate differential, a possible global dollar recovery and fiscal risk in an election year. The real closed the prior week at 5.1462 per dollar, a 0.49% weekly depreciation.

- Date: 2026-10-01 · published 2026-10-01T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: macro · region Brazil · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/17671-brazilian-real-exchange-rate-seen-weaker-into-year-end-rabobank
- Commodities: [Brazilian Real (BRL per USD)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/USDBRL.md), [Soybean Meal](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SBM.md)

## Why it matters

A weaker real would make Brazilian commodity exports cheaper in dollar terms, which can pressure world soybean, corn and meal prices and widen Brazil's export advantage.

## Read by commodity

- SBM: bearish ▼
- USDBRL: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| USDBRL | 2022-09-19 | [USD/BRL: Still see it a 5.30 by year-end – Rabobank — Elev8](https://feedsoft.ai/events/39794-usd-brl-still-see-it-a-5-30-by-year-end-rabobank-elev8.md) | -0.9% | -0.5% |
| USDBRL | 2024-11-12 | [Brazil’s real weakens, interest rates climb under Trump effect](https://feedsoft.ai/events/27618-brazil-s-real-weakens-interest-rates-climb-under-trump-effect.md) | -0.6% | +4.7% |
| USDBRL | 2020-03-05 | [Brazilian Real (BRL USD) Plunges to Record Low as Rate Cut Seen - Bloomberg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/9274-brazilian-real-brl-usd-plunges-to-record-low-as-rate-cut-seen-bloomberg.md) | +3.0% | +15.4% |
| USDBRL | 2022-06-14 | [Analysis: Exchange rate unlikely to mean trouble for Brazil’s Central Bank](https://feedsoft.ai/events/11313-analysis-exchange-rate-unlikely-to-mean-trouble-for-brazil-s-central-bank.md) | +0.7% | +5.4% |
| USDBRL | 2026-08-28 | [Brazilian Real Weakens as Fed Hike Bets Rise](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18106-brazilian-real-weakens-as-fed-hike-bets-rise.md) | -1.2% | +0.4% |
| SBM | 2024-11-12 | [Brazil’s real weakens, interest rates climb under Trump effect](https://feedsoft.ai/events/27618-brazil-s-real-weakens-interest-rates-climb-under-trump-effect.md) | -1.9% | -3.0% |
| SBM | 2024-06-27 | [Market confidence wanes, weakening Brazilian real](https://feedsoft.ai/events/29988-market-confidence-wanes-weakening-brazilian-real.md) | +1.8% | -2.9% |
| SBM | 2020-02-12 | [Brazilian real's new low vs dollar brings year-to-date loss to almost 8% By Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/54781-brazilian-real-s-new-low-vs-dollar-brings-year-to-date-loss-to-almost-8-by.md) | +0.8% | +1.8% |

## Sources

- fxstreet.com: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brazilian-real-exchange-rate-seen-weaker-into-year-end-rabobank-202609240915

---
Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.