# Election uncertainty drives volatility in Brazil markets

> Brazilian assets are becoming more volatile as the first round of the presidential election approaches, with a tight race driving rates and FX. Longer-term DI rates fell about 0.5 percentage point since mid-August, while the real held between R$5.10 and R$5.15 per dollar.

- Date: 2026-10-01 · published 2026-10-01T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: macro · region Brazil · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/17670-election-uncertainty-drives-volatility-in-brazil-markets
- Commodities: [Brazilian Real (BRL per USD)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/USDBRL.md)

## Why it matters

Election-driven swings in the real change the dollar cost of Brazilian exports, so they can shift the competitiveness of Brazilian soybeans, corn and meal against US supply.

## Read by commodity

- USDBRL: neutral

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| USDBRL | 2026-10-04 | [Brazilian Real Faces Uncertain Path After Election as Fiscal Risks Loom](https://feedsoft.ai/events/4937-brazilian-real-faces-uncertain-path-after-election-as-fiscal-risks-loom.md) | -4.7% | — |
| USDBRL | 2023-09-26 | [EMERGING MARKETS-Brazil's real steady after inflation data, Hungary trims interest rates](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34325-emerging-markets-brazil-s-real-steady-after-inflation-data-hungary-trims.md) | +2.3% | +0.7% |
| USDBRL | 2021-02-26 | [Brazil intervenes in FX markets to arrest real's fall — Octa](https://feedsoft.ai/events/48851-brazil-intervenes-in-fx-markets-to-arrest-real-s-fall-octa.md) | +1.4% | +2.6% |
| USDBRL | 2023-08-30 | [EMERGING MARKETS-Latin American currencies up on weaker dollar; Brazil's real lags on rate-cut speculation](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34788-emerging-markets-latin-american-currencies-up-on-weaker-dollar-brazil-s-real.md) | +2.3% | +4.1% |
| USDBRL | 2020-02-14 | [Brazil's FX intervention may give respite - NYK Daily](https://feedsoft.ai/events/54783-brazil-s-fx-intervention-may-give-respite-nyk-daily.md) | +1.2% | +10.0% |

## Sources

- valorinternational.globo.com: https://valorinternational.globo.com/markets/news/2026/09/21/election-uncertainty-drives-volatility-in-brazil-markets.ghtml

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.