# El Niño Set to Crimp Palm Oil Output in 2027, Squeezing Supply

> Bloomberg surveyed seven analysts and estimates Indonesian and Malaysian palm oil output will fall about 3% in 2027 due to prolonged El Niño dryness depressing yields. Output is forecast at 49 million tons in Indonesia and 19.5 million tons in Malaysia.

- Date: 2026-10-01 · published 2026-10-01T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Indonesia · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/17546-el-nino-set-to-crimp-palm-oil-output-in-2027-squeezing-supply
- Commodities: [Palm Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/PALMOIL.md), [Soybean Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SBO.md)

## Why it matters

A lower 2027 palm supply from the two largest producers tightens global vegetable oil supply and supports prices, which feeds into palm-based and competing oil prices for feed buyers.

## Read by commodity

- SBO: bullish ▲
- PALMOIL: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| PALMOIL | 2026-08-28 | [El Niño to crimp Indonesian palm oil output, producer group says](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18012-el-nino-to-crimp-indonesian-palm-oil-output-producer-group-says.md) | +4.5% | +1.3% |
| PALMOIL | 2026-09-02 | [El Niño to crimp Indonesian palm oil output, producer group says - MPOC](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17547-el-nino-to-crimp-indonesian-palm-oil-output-producer-group-says-mpoc.md) | -0.5% | -4.3% |
| PALMOIL | 2023-09-29 | [Indonesian Palm Oil Association sees palm oil prices rising in 2024 as El Nino crimps domestic output](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34219-indonesian-palm-oil-association-sees-palm-oil-prices-rising-in-2024-as-el-nino.md) | -4.5% | -3.5% |
| PALMOIL | 2023-11-23 | [El Nino poses risk to 2024 palm oil output in Indonesia, Malaysia - The HinduBusinessLine](https://feedsoft.ai/events/33277-el-nino-poses-risk-to-2024-palm-oil-output-in-indonesia-malaysia-the.md) | -0.7% | -3.3% |
| PALMOIL | 2023-11-30 | [El Niño ahead: Potential disruption to fishmeal supply in 2024](https://feedsoft.ai/events/33069-el-nino-ahead-potential-disruption-to-fishmeal-supply-in-2024.md) | -2.6% | -2.4% |
| SBO | 2023-09-29 | [Indonesian Palm Oil Association sees palm oil prices rising in 2024 as El Nino crimps domestic output](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34219-indonesian-palm-oil-association-sees-palm-oil-prices-rising-in-2024-as-el-nino.md) | +0.8% | -7.0% |
| SBO | 2023-11-23 | [El Nino poses risk to 2024 palm oil output in Indonesia, Malaysia - The HinduBusinessLine](https://feedsoft.ai/events/33277-el-nino-poses-risk-to-2024-palm-oil-output-in-indonesia-malaysia-the.md) | -1.1% | -5.2% |
| SBO | 2016-11-24 | [Lower palm oil output into early next year likely to support prices - The Business Times](https://feedsoft.ai/events/6694-lower-palm-oil-output-into-early-next-year-likely-to-support-prices-the.md) | +2.1% | -5.6% |

## Sources

- bloomberg.com: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-25/el-nino-set-to-crimp-palm-oil-output-in-2027-squeezing-supply

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.