# Drought and Global Competition Are Weighing on US Wheat Exports

> USDA's September assessment keeps 2026/27 US wheat exports at 775 million bushels, but cuts hard red winter export forecasts by 15 million bushels and hard red spring by 5 million, while white wheat rises by 20 million. Exports are expected to slip to fifth place globally as drought limits US supply and Canada and Australia harvest strongly.

- Date: 2026-09-21 · published 2026-09-21T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: trade · region US · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/17525-drought-and-global-competition-are-weighing-on-us-wheat-exports
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Wheat (HRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/KWHEAT.md)

## Why it matters

Lower US hard red wheat export expectations reduce demand for US supplies and weigh on US wheat prices, while competing origins gain share in export markets.

## Read by commodity

- WHEAT: bearish ▼
- KWHEAT: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2024-02-07 | [Global: Fierce export competition fuels falling prices](https://feedsoft.ai/events/7203-global-fierce-export-competition-fuels-falling-prices.md) | -3.7% | -0.9% |
| WHEAT | 2022-12-05 | [Wheat plunges to 3-month low on export competition](https://feedsoft.ai/events/6642-wheat-plunges-to-3-month-low-on-export-competition.md) | -9.5% | -0.8% |
| WHEAT | 2025-11-26 | [EU27 Wheat Exports in a Context of Global Abundance](https://feedsoft.ai/events/21897-eu27-wheat-exports-in-a-context-of-global-abundance.md) | +2.1% | +1.1% |
| WHEAT | 2022-08-22 | [Australian wheat under pressure from Ukraine, South America competition \| S&P Global](https://feedsoft.ai/events/40017-australian-wheat-under-pressure-from-ukraine-south-america-competition-s-and-p.md) | -9.3% | -9.7% |
| WHEAT | 2024-06-24 | [Improved U.S. Wheat Price Competitiveness Helps Drive Exports \| USDA Foreign Agricultural Service](https://feedsoft.ai/events/29799-improved-u-s-wheat-price-competitiveness-helps-drive-exports-usda-foreign.md) | -6.8% | -2.9% |
| KWHEAT | 2025-11-26 | [EU27 Wheat Exports in a Context of Global Abundance](https://feedsoft.ai/events/21897-eu27-wheat-exports-in-a-context-of-global-abundance.md) | +1.5% | +4.0% |
| KWHEAT | 2024-06-24 | [Improved U.S. Wheat Price Competitiveness Helps Drive Exports \| USDA Foreign Agricultural Service](https://feedsoft.ai/events/29799-improved-u-s-wheat-price-competitiveness-helps-drive-exports-usda-foreign.md) | +1.1% | -1.6% |
| KWHEAT | 2017-10-18 | [U.S. grains: Wheat down on weak export demand - Country Guide](https://feedsoft.ai/events/68498-u-s-grains-wheat-down-on-weak-export-demand-country-guide.md) | +0.2% | -1.2% |

## Sources

- grainchronicle.com: https://www.grainchronicle.com/market-analysis/drought-and-global-competition-are-weighing-on-us-wheat-exports

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.