# National winter crop production forecast to fall, still the fourth-largest on record. - ABC listen

> The ABARES crop report says Australia's winter crop production is forecast to fall from last year's bumper harvest but remain the fourth largest on record. Canola is flowering a month ahead of schedule in New South Wales.

- Date: 2026-09-02 · published 2026-09-02T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: report · region Australia · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/17452-national-winter-crop-production-forecast-to-fall-still-the-fourth-largest-on
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Canola Meal](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CANMEAL.md)

## Why it matters

The forecast decline from last year's large harvest modestly tightens export availability for Australian grains, though the crop remains large by historical standards.

## Read by commodity

- WHEAT: neutral
- CANMEAL: neutral

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2024-10-23 | [Northern crop pushes national production above last year \| Farm Online \| ACT](https://feedsoft.ai/events/27830-northern-crop-pushes-national-production-above-last-year-farm-online-act.md) | +0.3% | -1.4% |
| WHEAT | 2025-09-04 | [ABARES says crops on target for third-largest yield on record \| Farm Weekly \| WA](https://feedsoft.ai/events/22822-abares-says-crops-on-target-for-third-largest-yield-on-record-farm-weekly-wa.md) | -1.3% | -1.6% |
| WHEAT | 2019-03-04 | [Farm production expected to fall due to drought \| The National Tribune](https://feedsoft.ai/events/60045-farm-production-expected-to-fall-due-to-drought-the-national-tribune.md) | +0.7% | +5.2% |
| WHEAT | 2021-09-10 | [Harvest starts on potential 54.8m tonne winter crop for Australia - ABC News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/45031-harvest-starts-on-potential-54-8m-tonne-winter-crop-for-australia-abc-news.md) | +3.6% | +5.7% |
| WHEAT | 2023-04-12 | [The USDA raised its consumption forecast and lowered its estimate of wheat stocks, but prices continued to fall](https://feedsoft.ai/events/36464-the-usda-raised-its-consumption-forecast-and-lowered-its-estimate-of-wheat.md) | +9.0% | -1.0% |

## Sources

- abc.net.au: https://www.abc.net.au/listen/programs/nsw-country-hour/abares-crop-report-september-2026/107107984

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.