# India rice output faces biggest drop in two decades, stocks cushion exports | Reuters

> India has received 15% less rainfall than normal since the monsoon began on June 1, with some rice-growing states up to 42% short. Rice output is set for its biggest drop in two decades, but large state stockpiles should let India keep exporting without restrictions.

- Date: 2026-09-17 · published 2026-09-17T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region India · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/17442-india-rice-output-faces-biggest-drop-in-two-decades-stocks-cushion-exports
- Commodities: [Rough Rice](https://feedsoft.ai/c/RICE.md)

## Why it matters

A sharp domestic crop shortfall could tighten global rice supply, but large Indian stocks limit the risk of an export ban, so the price impact is likely moderate.

## Read by commodity

- RICE: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| RICE | 2018-07-17 | [Cloudy outlook: Rice-growing states face big rain deficit - India News \| The Financial Express](https://feedsoft.ai/events/63992-cloudy-outlook-rice-growing-states-face-big-rain-deficit-india-news-the.md) | -0.5% | -14.4% |
| RICE | 2023-08-02 | [Rice prices soar on back of India’s export ban](https://feedsoft.ai/events/12039-rice-prices-soar-on-back-of-india-s-export-ban.md) | +0.3% | +4.4% |
| RICE | 2018-03-26 | [Thailand: Rice exports to drop in 2018](https://feedsoft.ai/events/66250-thailand-rice-exports-to-drop-in-2018.md) | -0.4% | +5.7% |
| RICE | 2018-08-01 | [India's monsoon rain forecast cut, farm output seen at risk \| The Star](https://feedsoft.ai/events/63497-india-s-monsoon-rain-forecast-cut-farm-output-seen-at-risk-the-star.md) | -8.4% | -11.1% |
| RICE | 2026-07-31 | [Asia rice: Tighter supplies, crop concerns push Indian rice export prices higher](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18428-asia-rice-tighter-supplies-crop-concerns-push-indian-rice-export-prices-higher.md) | +3.1% | +7.8% |

## Sources

- reuters.com: https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-rice-output-faces-biggest-drop-two-decades-stocks-cushion-exports-2026-09-17/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.