# El Niño drives crop failure in Central America and East Africa and threatens the next season in Southern Africa, East Africa, Western South America, and Southeast Asia - Joint Research Centre

> JRC's August assessment reports El Niño-linked crop failures in Central America and East Africa. Southern Africa's 2026 cereal output is about 10% above average, but drier-than-average conditions are forecast for the October-December planting season. Heavy rains are expected to bring flooding to East Africa rather than relief.

- Date: 2026-09-04 · published 2026-09-04T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Southern Africa · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/17395-el-nino-drives-crop-failure-in-central-america-and-east-africa-and-threatens
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md)

## Why it matters

Regional crop losses and a drier Southern African planting season could raise maize import demand and firm prices, though the region is a small share of global trade.

## Read by commodity

- CORN: bullish ▲
- WHEAT: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2026-10-07 | [El Niño weather extremes worsen food security in East Africa and Central America and threaten next season crops in Southern Africa and South America - Joint Research Centre](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17047-el-nino-weather-extremes-worsen-food-security-in-east-africa-and-central.md) | -2.4% | -6.1% |
| CORN | 2023-11-13 | [Ongoing El Nino forecast to bring dry conditions in Southern Africa, SE Asia, Central America and wet conditions in Eastern Africa - Agroportal](https://feedsoft.ai/events/33103-ongoing-el-nino-forecast-to-bring-dry-conditions-in-southern-africa-se-asia.md) | -0.5% | -1.7% |
| CORN | 2026-06-08 | [Agricultural production threatened by combination of El Niño and high input prices - Joint Research Centre](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18726-agricultural-production-threatened-by-combination-of-el-nino-and-high-input.md) | -0.9% | +0.5% |
| CORN | 2019-04-17 | [To manage El Nino-related crop distress in eastern and southern Africa, invest in drought-tolerant seeds and better soil and water care – CIMMYT](https://feedsoft.ai/events/59511-to-manage-el-nino-related-crop-distress-in-eastern-and-southern-africa-invest.md) | -1.9% | +0.2% |
| CORN | 2025-06-23 | [Escalating drought threatens Europe's ecosystems and agriculture - Joint Research Centre](https://feedsoft.ai/events/24141-escalating-drought-threatens-europe-s-ecosystems-and-agriculture-joint-research.md) | -1.5% | -3.7% |
| WHEAT | 2026-07-27 | [Heatwaves impact summer and winter crops - Joint Research Centre](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18282-heatwaves-impact-summer-and-winter-crops-joint-research-centre.md) | -2.0% | +3.3% |
| WHEAT | 2026-05-06 | [Widespread ASAP forecast warnings on crops for second half of the year due to upcoming El Niño conditions - Joint Research Centre](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19186-widespread-asap-forecast-warnings-on-crops-for-second-half-of-the-year-due-to.md) | +3.3% | +0.0% |
| WHEAT | 2022-11-21 | [Exceptionally warm autumn raises concerns in the south of Europe - Joint Research Centre](https://feedsoft.ai/events/38616-exceptionally-warm-autumn-raises-concerns-in-the-south-of-europe-joint-research.md) | +0.2% | -2.4% |

## Sources

- joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu: https://joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu/jrc-news-and-updates/el-nino-drives-crop-failure-central-america-and-east-africa-and-threatens-next-season-southern-2026-09-03_en

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.