# Fertilizer’s Next Big Problem? It Goes Beyond the Strait of Hormuz

> StoneX fertilizer analyst Josh Linville says fertilizer prices could stay elevated into spring 2027 even if Strait of Hormuz tensions ease, because global supply chains have been badly damaged. University of Illinois researchers report DAP rising from about $700 to $850 per ton in 2026, and sulfur prices up more than 130% year to date.

- Date: 2026-10-25 · published 2026-10-25T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: geopolitics · region Global · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/17354-fertilizer-s-next-big-problem-it-goes-beyond-the-strait-of-hormuz
- Commodities: [Urea](https://feedsoft.ai/c/UREA.md), [DAP](https://feedsoft.ai/c/DAP.md)

## Why it matters

Tight nitrogen, phosphate and sulfur supplies raise input costs for the 2027 crop and keep fertilizer prices firm even if shipping normalises. Feed buyers should expect higher grain production costs to persist.

## Read by commodity

- DAP: bullish ▲
- UREA: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| UREA | 2026-07-14 | [The Strait of Hormuz Is Technically Still Open. So Why Are Fertilizer Prices Climbing? - AgWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18673-the-strait-of-hormuz-is-technically-still-open-so-why-are-fertilizer-prices.md) | +1.6% | +4.2% |
| UREA | 2026-10-13 | [Fertilizer Prices Stay Volatile as Strait of Hormuz, Russia Disrupt Supply \| Iowa PBS](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17038-fertilizer-prices-stay-volatile-as-strait-of-hormuz-russia-disrupt-supply-iowa.md) | +1.0% | — |
| UREA | 2025-07-08 | [Closure of Strait of Hormuz: A Looming Threat to Already High Fertilizer Costs - AgWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/24073-closure-of-strait-of-hormuz-a-looming-threat-to-already-high-fertilizer-costs.md) | +2.0% | +11.7% |
| UREA | 2026-05-01 | [Strait of Hormuz Closure Nears 10-Week Mark, Keeping Fertilizer Markets Tight Worldwide - RFD](https://feedsoft.ai/events/10736-strait-of-hormuz-closure-nears-10-week-mark-keeping-fertilizer-markets-tight.md) | -11.0% | -18.0% |
| UREA | 2026-04-27 | [Mideast Urea Output Drops as Fertilizer Shipments Stall in Strait of Hormuz - Bloomberg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/10730-mideast-urea-output-drops-as-fertilizer-shipments-stall-in-strait-of-hormuz.md) | -8.8% | -16.4% |
| DAP | 2026-07-14 | [The Strait of Hormuz Is Technically Still Open. So Why Are Fertilizer Prices Climbing? - AgWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18673-the-strait-of-hormuz-is-technically-still-open-so-why-are-fertilizer-prices.md) | +1.4% | +3.5% |
| DAP | 2026-09-18 | [How are fertilizer markets coping with the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz? \| CGIAR System](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17410-how-are-fertilizer-markets-coping-with-the-continued-closure-of-the-strait-of.md) | +0.3% | +0.3% |
| DAP | 2025-07-08 | [Closure of Strait of Hormuz: A Looming Threat to Already High Fertilizer Costs - AgWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/24073-closure-of-strait-of-hormuz-a-looming-threat-to-already-high-fertilizer-costs.md) | +0.7% | +10.9% |

## Sources

- agweb.com: https://www.agweb.com/news/crops/fertilizers-next-big-problem-it-goes-beyond-strait-hormuz

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.