# Thai Baht: Trade deficit fuels weakness against US dollar – MUFG

> MUFG highlights the Thai baht as a preferred expression of the Asian oil shock, citing September trade data showing the deficit widened to USD5.86bn from USD2.48bn as imports surged 50.4% year on year. MUFG expects the Bank of Thailand to hold its policy rate at 1.00% and sees USD/THB biased higher while oil stays elevated.

- Date: 2026-10-27 · published 2026-10-27T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: macro · region Thailand · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/17303-thai-baht-trade-deficit-fuels-weakness-against-us-dollar-mufg
- Commodities: [Thai Baht (THB per USD)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/USDTHB.md), [Crude Oil (Brent)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BRENT.md)

## Why it matters

Higher oil import costs widen Thailand's trade gap and pressure the baht, which affects the cost of Thai-denominated purchases and regional feed-linked demand. The currency signal is tied to energy costs rather than directly to feed grain flows.

## Read by commodity

- BRENT: bullish ▲
- USDTHB: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| BRENT | 2026-03-27 | [Ringgit weakens past 4.00 against US dollar \| The Star](https://feedsoft.ai/events/20417-ringgit-weakens-past-4-00-against-us-dollar-the-star.md) | +6.6% | -1.9% |
| BRENT | 2023-08-01 | [Rupee falls 31 paise to 82.23 against the US dollar in early trade](https://feedsoft.ai/events/35313-rupee-falls-31-paise-to-82-23-against-the-us-dollar-in-early-trade.md) | +0.6% | -0.6% |
| BRENT | 2019-03-21 | [Ringgit opens eight-months high against US dollar \| FMT](https://feedsoft.ai/events/60368-ringgit-opens-eight-months-high-against-us-dollar-fmt.md) | -1.2% | +4.3% |
| BRENT | 2020-04-27 | [Ringgit opens higher against US dollar](https://feedsoft.ai/events/53928-ringgit-opens-higher-against-us-dollar.md) | +19.9% | +86.8% |
| BRENT | 2021-09-30 | [Ringgit opens lower against US dollar \| Malay Mail](https://feedsoft.ai/events/45319-ringgit-opens-lower-against-us-dollar-malay-mail.md) | +3.8% | +7.8% |

## Sources

- fxstreet.com: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/thai-baht-trade-deficit-fuels-weakness-against-us-dollar-mufg-202610272225

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.