# Elections in Brazil: Lula returns to power, markets react with panic. Brazilian ETF loses nearly 15% in Tokyo. What about USDBRL, soybeans, sugar, BRAComp, and ETFs?

> Lula won Brazil's presidential runoff against Flavio Bolsonaro with about 52% of the vote. The Tokyo-traded Bovespa ETF fell nearly 15%, and Chicago soybean futures dropped to a two-month low as investors anticipated stronger trade ties with China.

- Date: 2026-10-26 · published 2026-10-26T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: macro · region Brazil · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/17288-elections-in-brazil-lula-returns-to-power-markets-react-with-panic-brazilian
- Commodities: [Brazilian Real (BRL per USD)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/USDBRL.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md)

## Why it matters

A weaker real and expectations of closer Brazil-China trade ties add pressure on soybean prices, since Brazil is the main competing exporter. The election also raises fiscal and currency risk for Brazilian feed costs.

## Read by commodity

- SOY: bearish ▼
- USDBRL: bullish ▲

## Linked price moves

| Commodity | Date | Window | Change % | z-score | Why linked |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| USDBRL | 2026-10-26 | 1 | +7.9% | 9.3 | Describes market panic after Lula's win, with the Brazilian ETF down nearly 15% and USDBRL in focus. |
| USDBRL | 2026-10-26 | 5 | +7.6% | 5.6 | Documents the panic in Brazilian markets and the USDBRL reaction right after the election result. |

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| USDBRL | 2024-12-17 | [USD/BRL: Brazilian Real, Stocks and Bonds Plummet as Panic Sweeps Markets - Bloomberg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/27151-usd-brl-brazilian-real-stocks-and-bonds-plummet-as-panic-sweeps-markets.md) | +2.0% | -0.2% |
| USDBRL | 2026-10-26 | [Brazil’s real sinks after Lula’s re-election victory \| Financial Markets News \| Al Jazeera](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17283-brazil-s-real-sinks-after-lula-s-re-election-victory-financial-markets-news-al.md) | +7.6% | — |
| USDBRL | 2024-06-25 | [Lula’s spending plans turn heat on Brazilian markets](https://feedsoft.ai/events/29989-lula-s-spending-plans-turn-heat-on-brazilian-markets.md) | +3.4% | +3.1% |
| USDBRL | 2026-10-26 | [Euro falls against dollar; Brazilian real tumbles after Lula election win](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17282-euro-falls-against-dollar-brazilian-real-tumbles-after-lula-election-win.md) | +7.6% | — |
| USDBRL | 2026-10-26 | [Brazilian Real Futures Fall 10% as Lula Win Puts USD/BRL in Focus \| EBC Financial Group](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17287-brazilian-real-futures-fall-10-as-lula-win-puts-usd-brl-in-focus-ebc-financial.md) | +7.6% | — |
| SOY | 2024-06-25 | [Lula’s spending plans turn heat on Brazilian markets](https://feedsoft.ai/events/29989-lula-s-spending-plans-turn-heat-on-brazilian-markets.md) | -1.3% | -4.9% |
| SOY | 2020-03-09 | [Corn, soybeans, wheat drop about 2% as global markets recoil \| Financial Post](https://feedsoft.ai/events/11269-corn-soybeans-wheat-drop-about-2-as-global-markets-recoil-financial-post.md) | -4.1% | -3.3% |
| SOY | 2020-03-18 | [Brazil central bank wades into FX, bond markets but real slump accelerates \| Financial Post](https://feedsoft.ai/events/54309-brazil-central-bank-wades-into-fx-bond-markets-but-real-slump-accelerates.md) | +7.6% | +2.2% |

## Sources

- xtb.com: https://www.xtb.com/int/market-analysis/news-and-research/elections-in-brazil-lula-returns-to-power-markets-react-with-panic-brazilian-etf-loses-nearly-15-in-tokyo-what-about-usdbrl-soybeans-sugar-bracomp-and-etfs

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.