# Markets Ablaze: Gas & LNG Prices Surge as Middle East Conflict Escalates

> Renewed Middle East fighting, including US strikes on Iran, Houthi advances near Bab el-Mandeb and a shutdown of Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, has pushed Brent above $100 per barrel and LNG prices toward $30 per MMBtu. Rystad Energy raised its 2026 TTF and Northeast Asian spot LNG forecasts by $1.00 per MMBtu to $16.00 and $17.00, and estimates Qatari LNG losses at 64.8 Mtpa in 2026.

- Date: 2026-10-02 · published 2026-10-02T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: geopolitics · region Middle East · magnitude high
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/17233-markets-ablaze-gas-and-lng-prices-surge-as-middle-east-conflict-escalates
- Commodities: [Crude Oil (Brent)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BRENT.md), [Urea](https://feedsoft.ai/c/UREA.md)

## Why it matters

Higher oil and gas costs raise nitrogen fertilizer production costs, which supports urea prices and feed input costs. Tight LNG supply and low European storage keep energy-linked feed costs elevated until supply rebalances around 2028.

## Read by commodity

- UREA: bullish ▲
- BRENT: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| BRENT | 2026-07-22 | [Oil price rises above $95 mark as Middle East conflict escalates \| Oil \| The Guardian](https://feedsoft.ai/events/9932-oil-price-rises-above-95-mark-as-middle-east-conflict-escalates-oil-the-guardian.md) | -8.2% | +0.8% |
| BRENT | 2026-03-01 | [Euro, yen slide as Middle East conflict escalates \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/11001-euro-yen-slide-as-middle-east-conflict-escalates-reuters.md) | +31.0% | +62.6% |
| BRENT | 2018-03-09 | [Oil prices surge above $101 as Gulf conflict escalates, Hormuz shipping slumps](https://feedsoft.ai/events/66168-oil-prices-surge-above-101-as-gulf-conflict-escalates-hormuz-shipping-slumps.md) | +1.0% | +4.8% |
| BRENT | 2024-10-31 | [Oil Rises On Middle East Conflict Escalation Fears](https://feedsoft.ai/events/28028-oil-rises-on-middle-east-conflict-escalation-fears.md) | +3.9% | +0.7% |
| BRENT | 2024-10-04 | [Palm surges on Middle East conflict, records highest weekly gain in 16 months - Markets - Business Recorder](https://feedsoft.ai/events/7764-palm-surges-on-middle-east-conflict-records-highest-weekly-gain-in-16-months.md) | +2.4% | -5.7% |
| UREA | 2026-03-02 | [Urea derivatives surge on Middle East conflict \| Latest Market News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/4428-urea-derivatives-surge-on-middle-east-conflict-latest-market-news.md) | +25.5% | +36.4% |
| UREA | 2024-03-25 | [Nola urea prices surge on US-Iran conflict \| Latest Market News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/31521-nola-urea-prices-surge-on-us-iran-conflict-latest-market-news.md) | -12.7% | -19.2% |
| UREA | 2025-06-23 | [Urea Prices Spike as Middle East Conflict Cuts Iranian Production \| CZ app](https://feedsoft.ai/events/24541-urea-prices-spike-as-middle-east-conflict-cuts-iranian-production-cz-app.md) | +1.4% | +12.4% |

## Sources

- rystadenergy.com: https://www.rystadenergy.com/insights/markets-ablaze-as-middle-east-conflict-continues

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.