# USDA Lowers 2026, 2027 Milk Production Forecasts; Price Forecasts Mixed - Cheese Reporter

> USDA's October supply-demand estimates cut 2026 milk production by 300 million pounds to 236.9 billion and 2027 by 200 million to 238.4 billion, citing lower cow inventories and output per cow. Cheese and butter price forecasts were lowered for both years while nonfat dry milk and dry whey forecasts were raised, and the 2026 Class III forecast fell 40 cents to $15.80.

- Date: 2026-10-09 · published 2026-10-09T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: report · region US · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/17113-usda-lowers-2026-2027-milk-production-forecasts-price-forecasts-mixed-cheese
- Commodities: [Milk (Class III)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/MILK.md)

## Why it matters

Lower milk output forecasts tighten the protein and milk solids balance, but weaker cheese and butter prices point to softer Class III and feed-buying power for dairy producers, so the net price signal is mixed.

## Read by commodity

- MILK: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| MILK | 2026-09-11 | [USDA Raises 2026, 2027 Milk Production Forecasts; Price Forecasts Mixed - Cheese Reporter](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17487-usda-raises-2026-2027-milk-production-forecasts-price-forecasts-mixed-cheese.md) | -0.3% | -7.3% |
| MILK | 2026-07-10 | [USDA Raises 2026, 2027 Milk Production Forecasts, Lowers Most Price Forecasts - Cheese Reporter](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18336-usda-raises-2026-2027-milk-production-forecasts-lowers-most-price-forecasts.md) | +0.4% | +6.4% |
| MILK | 2025-12-10 | [USDA Lowers 2026 Milk Production, Cheese And Butter Price Forecasts - Cheese Reporter](https://feedsoft.ai/events/21493-usda-lowers-2026-milk-production-cheese-and-butter-price-forecasts-cheese.md) | -0.8% | -6.8% |
| MILK | 2026-01-16 | [USDA Hikes 2026 Milk Production Forecast; Dairy Product Price Forecasts Mixed - Cheese Reporter](https://feedsoft.ai/events/21068-usda-hikes-2026-milk-production-forecast-dairy-product-price-forecasts-mixed.md) | -0.3% | +2.2% |
| MILK | 2025-04-11 | [USDA Hikes 2025 Milk Production Forecast, Lowers Dairy Product Price Forecasts - Cheese Reporter](https://feedsoft.ai/events/25122-usda-hikes-2025-milk-production-forecast-lowers-dairy-product-price-forecasts.md) | +0.8% | +6.8% |

## Sources

- cheesereporter.com: https://cheesereporter.com/news/market-trends-statistics/2026/10/09/usda-lowers-2026-2027-milk-production-forecasts-price-forecasts-mixed/
- thelandonline.com: https://www.thelandonline.com/news/mielke-market-weekly-agriculture-department-lowered-its-2026-and-2027-milk-production-forecasts/article_580f5c85-deb3-4aee-8c83-0e08d6840c40.html

---
Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.