# Summer crop season closes with below-average yield prospects - Joint Research Centre

> The EU JRC MARS bulletin says the 2026 summer crop season is closing with harvesting well advanced and EU yield forecasts below the five-year average for most crops. Persistent low soil moisture in western, central and south-eastern Europe is hampering rapeseed emergence and winter cereal establishment, while excessive rain has delayed sowing in the Baltic states and Finland.

- Date: 2026-10-26 · published 2026-10-26T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: report · region EU · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/17061-summer-crop-season-closes-with-below-average-yield-prospects-joint-research
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Barley](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BARLEY.md), [Canola Meal](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CANMEAL.md)

## Why it matters

Below-average EU yields and weak winter crop establishment tighten the European feed grain and rapeseed meal outlook, supporting prices for imported substitutes.

## Read by commodity

- WHEAT: bullish ▲
- BARLEY: bullish ▲
- CANMEAL: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2023-10-11 | [ASAP assessment - September 2023 - Joint Research Centre](https://feedsoft.ai/events/33550-asap-assessment-september-2023-joint-research-centre.md) | +0.4% | -1.5% |
| WHEAT | 2018-06-12 | [Dry puts the squeeze on national winter crop prospects: ABARES - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/64492-dry-puts-the-squeeze-on-national-winter-crop-prospects-abares-grain-central.md) | -0.9% | -6.9% |
| WHEAT | 2019-12-03 | [Winter crop slips below 30Mt: ABARES - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/55530-winter-crop-slips-below-30mt-abares-grain-central.md) | -4.1% | -1.4% |
| WHEAT | 2023-10-17 | [Winter crop harvest expected near five year average with price benefits - Australasian Farmers' & Dealers' Journal](https://feedsoft.ai/events/33574-winter-crop-harvest-expected-near-five-year-average-with-price-benefits.md) | -1.9% | -3.8% |
| WHEAT | 2022-07-06 | [Winter crop production expected to be above average with high global prices - Australasian Farmers' & Dealers' Journal](https://feedsoft.ai/events/40443-winter-crop-production-expected-to-be-above-average-with-high-global-prices.md) | -5.1% | -4.1% |

## Sources

- joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu: https://joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu/jrc-news-and-updates/summer-crop-season-closes-below-average-yield-prospects-2026-10-23_en

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.