# El Nino strengthens in Pacific, may persist into Jan-March 2027: NOAA | S&P Global

> NOAA says El Niño has strengthened, with a greater than 83% chance of a very strong event during January-March 2027. The agency says sea-surface anomalies exceeded 4°C in parts of the eastern Pacific in September. ABARES forecasts Australian wheat output at 29.9 million tonnes, down 17% year on year.

- Date: 2026-10-09 · published 2026-10-09T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Australia · magnitude high
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/17052-el-nino-strengthens-in-pacific-may-persist-into-jan-march-2027-noaa-s-and-p
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Barley](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BARLEY.md), [Palm Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/PALMOIL.md)

## Why it matters

A 17% fall in Australian wheat output removes exporter supply from the market and supports global wheat prices, with further risk from El Niño dryness in India and Southeast Asia.

## Read by commodity

- WHEAT: bullish ▲
- BARLEY: bullish ▲
- PALMOIL: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2026-07-27 | [INFOGRAPHIC: El Niño may lead to global food supply volatility in 2026-27 \| S&P Global](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18244-infographic-el-nino-may-lead-to-global-food-supply-volatility-in-2026-27-s-and.md) | -2.4% | +2.9% |
| WHEAT | 2023-06-16 | [FACTBOX: Mapping El Nino's impact on crop yields, global food trade in 2023-24](https://feedsoft.ai/events/35405-factbox-mapping-el-nino-s-impact-on-crop-yields-global-food-trade-in-2023-24.md) | +3.5% | -0.1% |
| WHEAT | 2023-09-06 | [From rice to palm oil, crop output forecasts for Asia-Pacific lower as El Nino strengthens \| The Straits Times](https://feedsoft.ai/events/33998-from-rice-to-palm-oil-crop-output-forecasts-for-asia-pacific-lower-as-el-nino.md) | +2.1% | -4.1% |
| WHEAT | 2025-01-09 | [La Niña Emerges in Pacific Triggering Global Weather Changes - Bloomberg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/26406-la-nina-emerges-in-pacific-triggering-global-weather-changes-bloomberg.md) | +0.0% | +3.7% |
| WHEAT | 2023-04-27 | [El Nino May Boost Soil Moisture in May for South American Wheat](https://feedsoft.ai/events/36317-el-nino-may-boost-soil-moisture-in-may-for-south-american-wheat.md) | +1.1% | -2.6% |
| PALMOIL | 2026-07-27 | [INFOGRAPHIC: El Niño may lead to global food supply volatility in 2026-27 \| S&P Global](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18244-infographic-el-nino-may-lead-to-global-food-supply-volatility-in-2026-27-s-and.md) | -0.2% | +4.8% |
| PALMOIL | 2023-06-16 | [FACTBOX: Mapping El Nino's impact on crop yields, global food trade in 2023-24](https://feedsoft.ai/events/35405-factbox-mapping-el-nino-s-impact-on-crop-yields-global-food-trade-in-2023-24.md) | +1.8% | +14.5% |
| PALMOIL | 2023-09-06 | [From rice to palm oil, crop output forecasts for Asia-Pacific lower as El Nino strengthens \| The Straits Times](https://feedsoft.ai/events/33998-from-rice-to-palm-oil-crop-output-forecasts-for-asia-pacific-lower-as-el-nino.md) | -4.2% | -6.4% |

## Sources

- spglobal.com: https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/agriculture/100926-el-nino-strengthens-in-pacific-may-persist-into-jan-march-2027-noaa

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.